#美SEC推动加密创新监管 This week (12.1-12.5), focus on a few key signals:

On the Federal Reserve side, the latest data from CME shows that the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut this month has soared to 87.6%—the market is basically betting on stability. Interestingly, the odds of Hassett taking over as chairman have jumped from 55% to 78% in a week; this personnel change could influence the policy tone next year. Tonight, Powell will talk about the U.S. capital markets at the NYSE, and he is expected to reassure the market.

On the other hand, there are undercurrents at the Bank of Japan. Their 30-year government bond yield has reached a new high, which is usually a precursor to interest rate hikes. If Japan really takes action to tighten liquidity, global risk assets, including $BTC $ETH $BNB, will all tremble.

When macroeconomic policies shift, the crypto market often reacts first.

BTC-0.23%

ETH4.21%

BNB1.6%

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MetaverseHermit

· 11h ago

87.6%—this data looks a bit too neat, feels like someone is suppressing the market? But Hassett moving up is something to watch, definitely need to pay attention to the crypto market trend next year. --- With this move by the Bank of Japan, if they really tighten, BTC is definitely going to take a hit—another bloodbath incoming. --- What is Powell going to say tonight? Can he please not just repeat the same old "data-dependent" line... --- Is the macro shift really reflected first? I feel like the crypto market always reacts slowly, and ends up getting rubbed into the ground by traditional finance. --- With such a high probability of a rate cut, this should be bullish for crypto, right? But lately it just feels like it’s all about who’s dumping on whom... --- There really are a lot of signals this week, but I bet five bucks that after Powell speaks we'll all just be confused again, and BTC will keep moving sideways as usual. --- If Japan acts and liquidity really tightens, retail investors are going to get bitten like mosquitoes again.

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AirdropHunter007

· 12-02 10:26

87.6% This number makes my heart race. The interest rate cut is set in stone, now we just wait for Powell not to cause any trouble tonight. If Japan really tightens... wow, the crypto world might face a bloodbath. Is the probability of Hassett taking office this high? It's only been a week, will the policy really change next year? Hearing you say that, it feels like we should have set up a position early. Once the macro situation turns, we will always be the last to know. Why is BTC singled out among these three coins? Does BNB have any recent movements? Will Powell's meeting at the NYSE be just another verbal check? Anyway, the interest rate cut is a sure thing.

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WagmiAnon

· 12-02 10:24

Can Powell not cause any trouble tonight, I just want to enter a position properly.

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VirtualRichDream

· 12-02 10:13

With such high expectations for interest rate cuts, it feels like Powell must stabilize things tonight, otherwise it will be quite a show again. If Japan really tightens, our current rebound will be in jeopardy... It's safer to hold cash. If Hassett takes office, will crypto policies improve next year? That's the key. With a 87.6% probability of rate cuts, it feels like that's about it, it's already been digested. If the Bank of Japan really takes this action, BTC might not be able to withstand it. If Powell makes a hawkish statement tonight, it will be disastrous; I bet five dollars it will plummet. Once the macro situation turns, the crypto world is the first to get hit; that's a rule.

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GasFeeTears

· 12-02 10:10

The probability of a 87.6% interest rate cut has been locked in, and the odds for Hassett jumped so quickly that it's really outrageous. We still have to see how the policy will go next year based on their performance. The real risk is on the Japanese Central Bank side, where the 30-year government bond has reached a new high. If they really tighten Liquidity, the crypto world will explode.

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MidnightSeller

· 12-02 10:08

87.6%? This data needs to be looked at again, the Fed is best at throwing smoke bombs. --- Hassett's probability of taking office has broken 78, doesn't it feel like it's a bit overhyped? I really don't know how the policy will go next year. --- Is the Bank of Japan going to withdraw liquidity? Then we need to keep an eye on it, risk assets really need to be cautious this time. --- Every time it is said that macro policy reacts first to encryption, but what happens? Often it's the last to react and still gets trapped. --- I don't expect anything new from Powell's speech tonight, it's already been mostly digested by the market. --- BTC, ETH, BNB all shaking together? How about we talk about who is falling the hardest instead? --- I've seen this kind of signal week many times, the key is still to see the Fed's true intentions, the data is just a guise. --- If Japan really takes action to raise interest rates, then the contraction of liquidity in Asia will be a big problem, and everyone will have to cool down at that time. --- 87.6% probability is flying everywhere, but I just want to ask, is lowering interest rates really so favourable for the crypto world?

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