This morning I woke up to see BTC fall below 83000, and many people are still shouting in the group, "buy the dip opportunity has arrived."

I didn't say anything. Because I had been staring at a number for a long time: 80%.

This is the market's bet on the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December. What about the probability for January? It skyrocketed to 90%.

You might think, whether Japan raises interest rates or not, what does it have to do with my crypto world?
The relationship has grown.

There are nearly 19 trillion US dollars in yen carry trades around the world - simply put, it means borrowing yen at close to zero interest rates, exchanging it for US dollars, and then pouring it into the US stock market and the crypto market. During good market years, this money has significantly contributed to the momentum.

But what if Japan really raises interest rates?
This money will turn around and run away. And it runs extremely fast. With the best liquidity, crypto assets naturally become the "first targets to be sold off."

Do you remember the evening before Christmas in 2022? The Bank of Japan suddenly adjusted its YCC policy, causing a bloodbath in global markets that day. December 19 of this year is also before Christmas, and market liquidity is already poor; any policy changes could be magnified several times.

Now let's look at the current data:
- BTC fell over 20% in a single month
- ETF net outflow of $3.5 billion
- Liquidation amount in the last 24 hours exceeded 400 million USD

The market is already very fragile.

What's even worse is that Powell from the Federal Reserve has entered a silent period and is saying nothing. Would you say this is holding back or the calm before the storm?

If Japan tightens liquidity and the US does not inject cash - BTC is the unfortunate one being "squeezed from both sides."

I saw someone say, "BNB has fallen this much, what are we waiting for to buy the dip?"
Calm down. The on-chain projects are all below the offering price, what can the newly appointed BSC growth director do? Users are almost leaving, how can there be any growth?

Of course, don't be too pessimistic.
The carry trade closure is just a short-term impact, not the end of the world. After the last rate hike in Japan in 2024, BTC hit a new high within three months.

The key is to look at two time points:
**December Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting** + **Federal Reserve Dot Plot Release**

During this time, don't go all in, don't use leverage, preserving your principal is the most important. Survive, and you will have the qualification to enjoy the next wave of rebound.

So now the question arises —
The sharp fall is right in front of you, do you really dare to buy the dip?