Nicholas Lardy's got an interesting take: he's betting China will outpace the US economically by at least 2x over the next 3-5 years. His argument? The convergence story isn't over. China's still closing the gap on total output, and he's pushing back hard against the middle-income trap narrative that keeps popping up.
It's a bold call. While others worry about structural slowdowns, Lardy sees sustained momentum. Whether you buy it or not, the implications for global markets—and asset allocation strategies—are worth considering. Growth differentials like that don't happen in a vacuum.
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TrustMeBro
· 4h ago
Lardy is too optimistic, he even dares to say 2x... However, we really need to follow the data from China, don't be fooled by the narrative.
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FudVaccinator
· 4h ago
Is this guy Ladi too optimistic... China surpassing the US by 2 times, that's quite a statement.
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SandwichVictim
· 4h ago
2 times? This guy must have had too much to drink...
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LiquidationWatcher
· 5h ago
Lardy is a bit crazy this time, 2x? I'm not so sure... the structural issues are right there.
China can catch up, but can it exceed 2 times? The demographic dividend is gone, and debt is piling up, how can it run faster?
That said, asset allocation does need to be rethought, such a large difference in growth rates can indeed affect the global market rhythm.
Nicholas Lardy's got an interesting take: he's betting China will outpace the US economically by at least 2x over the next 3-5 years. His argument? The convergence story isn't over. China's still closing the gap on total output, and he's pushing back hard against the middle-income trap narrative that keeps popping up.
It's a bold call. While others worry about structural slowdowns, Lardy sees sustained momentum. Whether you buy it or not, the implications for global markets—and asset allocation strategies—are worth considering. Growth differentials like that don't happen in a vacuum.