Woke up this morning to find my account in the green again? Bitcoin fell below 86000, Ethereum evaporated by 5% in a day, and a bunch of alts are even more unbearable to look at. Who is causing trouble this time?

Don't rush to blame those old conspiracy theories. Things like sudden Chinese policy changes and the resignation of the Federal Reserve Chairman are either old news being rehashed or completely false information. The real trigger is hidden in Tokyo.

At 7 a.m., the Bank of Japan suddenly signaled a rate hike. Five minutes later, the yen exchange rate surged sharply, and twelve minutes later, Bitcoin began to plunge with increased volume. Within half an hour, the total liquidation amount across the network exceeded 300 million USD. This is not a coincidence; it is a carefully designed liquidity harvest.

Why has the Bank of Japan caused such a huge uproar? Simply put, for the past decade or so, the global market has been taking advantage of Japan's wool—borrowing yen at ultra-low interest rates and flipping it into high-yield assets. Now Japan is about to turn off the tap, and everyone has to pay back the borrowed money. The liquidity in the crypto market was already tight, so it naturally became the first target to be drained.

The timeline makes it clearer: the signal was released at 7 o'clock, the yen surged violently at 7:05, Bitcoin started to fall at 7:12, and the liquidation data exploded at 7:30. The speed of this chain reaction indicates that many institutions had plans in advance, while retail investors were completely caught off guard. As of 10:30 AM, the number of liquidations had already exceeded 210,000.

The next act is just beginning. Will Washington sit idly by while Japan pulls the plug? The stance of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department is crucial. On the other hand, whether Tokyo actually implements an interest rate hike in December will directly determine the subsequent trend.

Several key time points must be closely monitored: On December 1st, the Federal Reserve has stopped tapering, on the 3rd Ethereum has an upgrade action, and on the 10th the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is very likely to cut rates (current predicted probability 87%). These events combined will only lead to more volatile market fluctuations.

Short-term strategy? Withdraw high leverage first, consider hedging with gold and US bonds, keep some cash on hand and discuss again after December 10th. The bull market is not dead, it's just temporarily choked by liquidity.

Ultimately, the crypto market today is just caught in the crossfire. The real battlefield is the liquidity game between the central banks of the US and Japan. Do you think the US will intervene strongly, or will Japan go all the way?