#数字资产市场观察 The probability of Hasset being elected as the Fed chairman has surged to 78%. Does seeing this number make your heart tighten? Don't rush to act just yet.

Such news is most likely to create illusions. The Fed changing leadership will indeed stir monetary policy – the pace of interest rate hikes has changed, liquidity has changed, and the crypto market follows with fluctuations. Where's the problem? Probability does not equal reality. No matter how beautiful the numbers in the prediction market are, there is still a long way to go before the official appointment. Just think about those years, how many "nailed down" messages ended up reversing and slapping faces?

I have observed this scenario too many times: when the news just comes out, the candlestick chart has already moved ahead. By the time retail investors react and rush into the market, they often end up buying at the peak. So the first trap is: the lag of news can be detrimental.

Let's talk about the trends. Suppose Hasset really takes office, his policy inclination is the key. Dovish? The expectation of easing might drive Bitcoin's short-term rise, and mainstream coins like $ETH would also follow suit. Hawkish? Tightening expectations would directly douse cold water on the market. But who knows which side he is on now? The market is purely betting on probabilities. This is the second pitfall: a single piece of news can't support trading logic at all. There are too many variables in the crypto market – macroeconomic data, regulatory dynamics, on-chain capital flows, any of which can change direction.

To be honest, every time I see blind operations after such news, I feel it's a pity. Impulse is the devil; the market won't give you a single penny more because of your anxiety.

My operational advice is very simple: spot holders should not move their positions recklessly, and short-term players, if they really feel the urge, can test with a small position + strict stop-loss. Remember, news is just a catalyst; what truly determines the trend is the resonance of capital and emotions. If you can't see clearly, just wait and observe. When things are unclear, do not act; this is a golden rule for survival.

Don't let a probability number influence your judgment. The wallet is yours, and your mind should be yours too.