BTC Market Analysis on October 14

1. Trend Analysis

· Strong bearish pattern: Price is below all EMAs, and the EMAs are in perfect bearish alignment.
· Key support breakdown: The price has fallen below the important psychological level of 100,000.
· Bollinger Bands Analysis: The price has touched the lower Bollinger Band at 98,716.1, indicating an oversold condition.
· Deep pullback confirmation: From the peak of 118,799.8, it has dropped to the current level, with a decline of over 16%.

2. Price Position Analysis

· At a critical decision point: the price is supported at 97,931.5 (24-hour low)
· Possible oversold rebound: touching the lower Bollinger Band and experiencing a significant decline, there is a technical rebound demand.
· Downside risks remain: If it breaks below the support at 97,931, it may trigger a new wave of decline.

3. Volume Analysis

· Extremely low volume: The current trading volume of 111 million is far below the 5-day average of 2.059 billion and the 10-day average of 1.882 billion.
· Market implication: During the decline, the trading volume shrinks, indicating that selling pressure has eased.
· Signs of a trend reversal: Often accompanied by directional choice after extreme volume contraction.

4. Support and Resistance Analysis

· Resistance Levels:
· Strong Resistance 1: 100,270.9 (EMA5)
· Strong Resistance 2: 101,157.3 (EMA10)
· Strong Resistance 3: 101,498.2 (24-hour high)
· Support Level:
· Key Support: 97,931.5 (24-hour low)
· Bollinger Band Support: 98,716.1 (Lower Band)
· Psychological support: 95,000.0

Trend Prediction

Most likely scenario (50% probability): After a technical rebound, continue to go down.

1. Reason: Oversold condition + Touching the lower Bollinger Band + Significant drop
2. Path:
· First rebound to the resistance zone of 100,270-101,157
· After being blocked, it tests the support at 97,931 again.
3. Key Observation: The strength of the rebound and the coordination of trading volume

Possible scenario (30% probability): Directly breaks below support

1. Trigger condition: Break below the support of 97,931 with volume increase.
2. Downward target: 95,000-93,000 range
3. Nature judgment: If the volume breaks down, it may open a new downward trend.

Low probability scenario (20% probability): Strong rebound reversal

1. Condition: Break through 101,500 with volume and hold steady.
2. Feature: Continuous buying pressure appears
3. Target range: 102,600-104,200 area

Trading Suggestions

For holders of long positions:

· Suggested to reduce positions on rebound: consider reducing positions in the range of 100,000-100,500
· Strict stop-loss: set below 97,800
· If it falls below 97,931, you should exit immediately.

For bears/wait-and-see investors:

· You can short with a light position at 99,800-100,200, with a stop loss above 100,700.
· If it breaks below 97,931, you can short with light positions, targeting 96,000.
· Wait for a rebound to the resistance level before placing a short position.

Risk Control Focus:

· Key observation points:
· Is the support at 97,931 effective?
· 100,271 resistance strength
· Change in trading volume
· Long Stop Loss: below 97,800
· Short Stop Loss: Breakthrough 101,000

Risk warning

1. The psychological barrier of 100,000 has been broken, and market sentiment is leaning bearish.
2. The lower Bollinger Band support at 98,716 is crucial and needs to be closely monitored.
3. Trading volume has drastically shrunk, and a reversal could happen at any time.
4. It is recommended to operate with a very light position, strictly set stop losses, and control risks.

Summary: BTC is currently in a clear bearish trend, but the technical indicators show an oversold condition, indicating a demand for a technical rebound. It is recommended to primarily short on rallies; if a strong rebound occurs to the resistance zone of 100,270-101,157, it would be a good opportunity to short. Strict risk control is advised, and patience is needed while waiting for the market to choose a direction.