#美停摆危机或将结束？

The implementation of the government reopening agreement is likely to drive a strong short-term rebound in the US stock and cryptocurrency markets. This rebound is not based on fundamentals but is purely driven by liquidity recovery. The government will regain its budget and immediately initiate large-scale spending, including paying backlogged salaries for civil servants and fulfilling billions of dollars in federal contracts. The TGA will stop growing and begin to decline rapidly. This process is equivalent to hundreds of billions of dollars being released into the private banking system, converted into bank reserves, effectively alleviating the tension in the overnight lending market. Overnight rates like SOFR are expected to fall, and the usage of the SRF will decline rapidly, alleviating the 'fever' symptoms in the financial system. Liquidity-sensitive assets like cryptocurrencies are expected to see excess returns. Historical experience shows that when the macro liquidity environment improves, the cryptocurrency market often gains excess returns. As the TGA balance decreases, the funding support provided to the market will likely lead to a short-term mini bull market driven by capital inflows in the cryptocurrency market, completing a rebound after a buying zone.

Although the complete resolution of the government shutdown will take a few more days, the market usually prices in advance. As the agreement progresses, short-term market optimism can be expected from the liquidity reversal.