Three Key Focuses Today That Will Directly Sway the Trends of the U.S. Dollar, BTC, and ETH

1. FOMC Interest Rate Decision
At 2:00 a.m. tonight (Beijing Time), the Federal Reserve is expected to launch the first interest rate cut of 2025, with a 25 basis point reduction, bringing the interest rate down to 4.00%-4.25%. This may drive a rebound in risky assets and benefit $BTC. However, tariff factors complicate the inflation outlook, which will also be an unavoidable topic for Powell tonight.
2. Powell's Press Conference
It will start at 2:30 a.m. (Beijing Time). Powell is expected to repeat the "data-dependent" stance and hint at the subsequent interest rate cut path in the dot plot. If his tone is dovish, the U.S. Dollar Index will weaken,利好 (benefiting) BTC/ETH; if it is hawkish, the market will face short-term pressure.
3. Trump's Speech in London
Trump arrived in the UK on the evening of the 16th and will meet with the King and the Prime Minister on the 17th, followed by an important speech. The core topics include the U.S.-UK investment agreement, tariff negotiations, and the situations in Ukraine-Russia and the Middle East. He may criticize high interest rates, accuse "Mr. Too Late Powell" of insufficient rate cuts, and emphasize "trade first". These statements may trigger another rally in cryptocurrencies, but coupled with geopolitical risks weighing on the crypto market, tonight could be a case of "success or failure hinges on the same factor"—it will be another sleepless night.