Electric Capital Developer Report: The influx of new developers has slowed down, but the overall momentum remains active

Original post by Enrique @eherrerosj

Original compilation: Qianwen, ChainCatcher

Based on over 140 million cryptocurrency submissions, we draw the following conclusions:

As of 6/1/23, 21,300 developers are active each month:

• Compared to Jun-22 (1 year ago), down 22%.
• Compared to Jun-21, up 25% (2 years).
• Compared to Jun-20, up 92% (3 years).

Overview of key points

*Developers leaving are mostly newcomers to the cryptocurrency space (those who have been in the space for less than 12 months) and developers who only contributed <20% of commits

• In contrast, developers who have been working in the cryptocurrency for more than 12 months are still building, and they contribute more than 80% of the commits
• The influx of new developers has slowed since the peak of the market

Fewer developers exploring cryptocurrencies

We segment monthly active developers by comparing when they made their first and last commits:

• Newcomer developers: developers who have worked in cryptocurrency for less than 1 year
• Emerging developers: 1-2 years in cryptocurrency
• Mature developer: engaged in cryptocurrency for more than 2 years

The number of emerging developers has grown, while the number of mature developers has remained stable. The reason for the decline in monthly active developers last year was mainly from newcomers.

From June 22 to June 23:

• 48% drop in new developers (7730 developers)
• 44% increase in emerging developers (1650 developers)
• 2% increase for mature developers (150 developers)

The reason for the decrease in the number of newcomers

Looking at the number of new developers on a monthly basis, 2,900 new developers entered the cryptocurrency in May 23:

*20% decrease compared to Feb-23 (3 months ago).

• Decrease of 42% compared to Nov-22 (6 months ago). *50% reduction compared to May 22 (12 months ago).
• Compared to Nov-21, an increase of 45% (from market top).

Newcomer developers joining in 2023 did not stay in the field for long.

The graph below shows how long before most new developers stay in the cryptocurrency space (retention rate < 20%) from January 21:

• 2021: 6-10 months
• 2022: 3-6 months
• 2023 (so far): 3-4 months

Overall, the retention rate in 2023 is stable. But if the data starts in 2015, we find that developers who join in the bear market leave faster. New developers in 2023 are leaving faster than in 2022 or 2021, which is typical in a bear market.

Market cycles are responsible for the dominance of newcomers, emerging and established cryptocurrency developers at different times in the market.

The period when newcomers dominate at the peak of the market:

• 6 months after market peak in January 2018 (June 2018)
• 7 months after market peak in November 2021 (June 2022): 70% dominance

Once in a bear market, developers (emerging and mature developers) who have been working in the cryptocurrency field for more than a year will dominate, and the main periods are:

• 24 months after market peak in January 2018 (January 2020): 60% dominance
• 18 months after November 2021 ATH (June 2023): 60% dominance

**Although monthly active developers have declined overall, departing developers do not play a critical role. **

If a developer doesn’t contribute within two months, we can say that the developer “leaves” the crypto space. Developers who stopped contributing after 3/23 accounted for only <20% of commits.

Developers who continued to contribute code in April and May 23 showed the following characteristics:

• Contributed most of the code
• more active days
• Longer time in cryptocurrency

First, developers who contributed most recently in April and May '23 contributed the majority of code commits (80%+).

Second, developers who contributed in April and May were active for a longer period.

From the median it can be seen that:

• Developers who continue to contribute: 13 weeks active *Departed developers: 2 weeks active

Third, developers who contributed in April and May have been working in cryptocurrency longer.

Days developers have worked on cryptocurrency (median):

• Continuing developers: 19 weeks *Developers who leave: 8 weeks

Ecosystem Dynamics

The ecosystems with monthly development volume growth are (June 22 to June 23):

• Osmosis: + 56%
• Sui: +159%
• Apt: + 90%
• Ton: + 102%
• Optimism:+ 27%
• Aztec Protocol:+ 267%

Summary

• The number of monthly active developers decreased by 22% year-on-year. *Departed developers are newcomers to cryptocurrency and only responsible for less than 20% of commits. *Developers who have been working in the cryptocurrency field for more than 12 months continue to build, and they contribute more than 80% of the commits.
• The number of developers for Osmosis, Sui, Aptos, Ton, Optimism, and Aztec Protocol increased year-on-year.