America's public debt reaches 368 million BTC: "The debt printer" creates a century's worth of Bitcoin in one year

At the beginning of November, America's public debt surpassed 38 trillion USD, and when comparing the scale of debt with Bitcoin, the actual debt fluctuations are even larger than the changes in BTC price since January 20.

According to the Debt to the Penny data from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the total public debt of the government reached 38.118 trillion USD as of November 6, an increase of about 1.1 trillion USD compared to August 12, and higher than the threshold of 38 trillion USD at the end of October, an event that generated a new wave of news.

The threshold of 37,000 trillion USD attracted attention in mid-August, and in just a few weeks, public debt continued to increase by an additional trillion USD with the issuance of new bonds.

During the same period, the spot price of BTC mainly fluctuated around 100,000 – 105,000 USD, with a closing price on January 20 of 102,082 USD. Thus, according to the measure of “unit of account,” the debt fluctuation is greater than the change in BTC price at the beginning of the week. With the reference price on the inauguration day being 102,082 USD, the current level is only about 10% higher than this mark.

Expert Sani from TimechainIndex calculates that, with the current price of BTC at 103,500 USD, America's public debt is equivalent to about 368.3 million BTC (, 118 trillion USD divided by the price of BTC ).

When public debt increased by about 1.9 trillion USD since January 20, if calculated at the price of 103,500 USD/BTC, this increase is equivalent to about 18.36 million BTC. With the price of BTC dropping more than 6% since Sani released the analysis, the equivalent figure would be about 19.8 million BTC at a price of 96,000 USD.

With a post-halving issuance of about 450 BTC per day (equivalent to 164,250 BTC per year), the increase in debt over the past 10 months is equivalent to more than a century of new BTC issuance. The inflows and outflows from the US spot Bitcoin ETFs also create additional pressure on the pricing mechanism and demand.

The data on capital flow from spot ETFs in America since the beginning of November has been quite mixed, directly affecting the mechanical relationship between demand, BTC price, and the “public debt converted to BTC” ratio.

In terms of fiscal policy, the U.S. Department of the Treasury continues to issue regular bonds to raise new funds. In November, the Treasury announced the issuance of 125 billion USD to refinance 98.2 billion USD of maturing bonds, raising an additional 26.8 billion USD in new funds. According to the quarterly refunding report and TBAC minutes, along with the SOMA debt reduction roadmap and a dense maturity schedule, the demand for financial mobilization remains stable.

From a mathematical perspective, this illustrates how an asset with a fixed supply of (BTC) interacts with an increasing debt obligation. Even if the price of BTC reaches 200,000 USD, the national debt of 38.118 trillion USD still equates to about 191 million BTC – much higher than the current circulating supply of around 19–20 million coins. The gradually predictable on-chain supply increases, while the national debt can rise by hundreds of billions of USD in just a few weeks, depending on bond issuance and cash balances.

The impact of BTC price on public debt converted to BTC:

A practical rule is that each $10,000 move of BTC changes about 32–36 million BTC in the “converted public debt ratio”, equivalent to 9–10%, and is not linear across the curve.

This comparison is not a statement that America can or will repay debt with Bitcoin, but rather a lens comparing fixed supply assets with the fiscal path influenced by policy and macroeconomics.

It should be noted that the debt data from the Ministry of Finance is updated slowly, so matching the debt data date with the BTC price on the same day is important to ensure accuracy. Different price sources may vary by 1–2%, so specifying the source helps ensure transparent calculations and auditability.

In the near future, the development of the numerator ( public debt ) and the denominator ( BTC price ) will determine the trend of the ratio. Regarding the numerator, the choice of issuance structure and the demand for new money from the Ministry of Finance will affect the frequency of refinancing and interest costs until 2026.

According to the refunding report, about 31% of market debt matured in the last 12 months, with an average debt age of nearly 6 years. This structure maintains pressure on the proportion of short-term bonds and the size of the coupon if yields remain at current levels.

Regarding the sample size, ETF capital flows can fluctuate quickly, and sustainable positive capital flows will support spot demand, thereby mechanically reducing the ratio of “public debt converted to BTC”. Sequential volatility remains common as funds and consultants adjust their portfolios.

The budget forecast indicates that interest costs may rise. The CBO projects that from 2025 to 2035, net interest rates will increase to about 4% of GDP by 2035, with public debt held by the public potentially reaching around 156% of GDP by 2055 if no policy changes occur. Meanwhile, real growth close to 2% and inflation around 2% will not significantly boost nominal GDP, reinforcing the calculation of the “public debt converted to BTC” at the current level or higher, unless the price of BTC increases or the budget deficit decreases.

The recalculation method is very simple: take the current total public debt from Debt to the Penny, take the closing price of BTCUSD on the same day from a reliable index, and then divide the USD debt by the BTC price to get the “public debt converted to BTC”.

Assuming a release of 450 BTC per day after halving, this method yields a figure of 368.3 million BTC at a price of 103,500 USD for a debt of 38,118 trillion USD, and approximately 18.36 million BTC corresponding to an increase since the beginning of the year.

What needs to be monitored in the next quarter is the bidding structure of the Ministry of Finance, changes in new money targets, the ETF flow, and updates from the CBO as discussions on the FY26 budget continue. Any changes in these factors will be reflected in the numerator or denominator.

According to the November report from the Ministry of Finance, the current refinancing issuance raises 26.8 billion USD in new funds while refinancing 98.2 billion USD in maturing bonds.

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