# Middle-Aged Retail Investor's Self-Help Guide · March 21st
🪙 **Crypto**
BTC currently trading around $70,400, touched $75,000 at the weekly high before getting knocked back [Fortune]( . ETH around $2,148, XRP around $1.45 [NewsBTC]( , Fear and Greed Index at 11—extreme fear.
The biggest news this week was actually a major positive: SEC + CFTC jointly officially classified ETH, XRP, SOL and 13 other crypto assets as "digital commodities," with full legal force [CoinPedia]( . Ten years waiting for regulatory clarity, only to be completely buried by the FOMC's sell-the-fact event.
FOMC results: Rates unchanged, median dot plot still only expects one rate cut in 2026, Powell acknowledged four or five committee members shifted from expecting two cuts to only one [CNBC]( . Core inflation expectations raised to 2.7%, Powell said inflation progress "falling short of expectations" [Inc]( . BTC dropped 4% accordingly, altcoins fell worse—textbook FOMC sell-the-fact scenario playing out for the 8th time.
Good news: At Fear and Greed Index level 11, historically across 23 prior occurrences, average return in the next 30 days was +12.4% [Blockchain Magazine]( . But historical patterns aren't guarantees, extreme fear may persist for weeks.
**Macro**
Iran conflict entering third week, Trump says "Iran wants to talk but I don't want to right now, conditions aren't good enough" [Fortune]( . Oil prices highly volatile this week, Brent crude briefly reclaimed above $100/barrel then fell back, Goldman Sachs predicts Q4 may drop to $70s [Sina Finance]( . Ceasefire news could emerge anytime or be delayed anytime—this is the market's biggest uncertainty currently.
🇺🇸 **US Stocks**
The three major indices all fell this week—Dow down 1.01%, Nasdaq down 0.98%, S&P 500 down 0.80% [Sina Finance]( . Continued pressure after FOMC, but falling oil prices narrowed the declines. S&P 500 has fallen around 5% from the year-start high.
🇨🇳 **A-Shares**
Yesterday (Friday) Shanghai Composite Index broke below 4,000 points, closing at 3,957 points, hitting a new year-low, with over 4,700 individual stocks in the red [Sina Finance]( . Non-ferrous metals led declines with -6.1%, while coal and petrochemicals rose against the trend [Sina]( , sector divergence extremely pronounced.
600392 Shenghe Resources and 000751 Zinc Industry Stock were pounded along with the non-ferrous sector this week, but fundamentals unchanged. War ends = risk appetite recovers = non-ferrous benefits first. Selling now means handing over positions at emotional lows, waiting a bit won't hurt.
**Today's Retail Investor Quote:** History's biggest crypto regulatory positive, completely buried by a message that perfectly fit expectations. Markets never follow the script—good things take time to marinate, bad things hit you first. Those who can hold on will wait for the delayed spring. 🌱
*Not investment advice, don't blame me if you lose money.*
# Middle-Aged Retail Investor's Self-Help Guide · March 21st
🪙 **Crypto**
BTC currently trading around $70,400, touched $75,000 at the weekly high before getting knocked back [Fortune]( . ETH around $2,148, XRP around $1.45 [NewsBTC]( , Fear and Greed Index at 11—extreme fear.
The biggest news this week was actually a major positive: SEC + CFTC jointly officially classified ETH, XRP, SOL and 13 other crypto assets as "digital commodities," with full legal force [CoinPedia]( . Ten years waiting for regulatory clarity, only to be completely buried by the FOMC's sell-the-fact event.
FOMC results: Rates unchanged, median dot plot still only expects one rate cut in 2026, Powell acknowledged four or five committee members shifted from expecting two cuts to only one [CNBC]( . Core inflation expectations raised to 2.7%, Powell said inflation progress "falling short of expectations" [Inc]( . BTC dropped 4% accordingly, altcoins fell worse—textbook FOMC sell-the-fact scenario playing out for the 8th time.
Good news: At Fear and Greed Index level 11, historically across 23 prior occurrences, average return in the next 30 days was +12.4% [Blockchain Magazine]( . But historical patterns aren't guarantees, extreme fear may persist for weeks.
**Macro**
Iran conflict entering third week, Trump says "Iran wants to talk but I don't want to right now, conditions aren't good enough" [Fortune]( . Oil prices highly volatile this week, Brent crude briefly reclaimed above $100/barrel then fell back, Goldman Sachs predicts Q4 may drop to $70s [Sina Finance]( . Ceasefire news could emerge anytime or be delayed anytime—this is the market's biggest uncertainty currently.
🇺🇸 **US Stocks**
The three major indices all fell this week—Dow down 1.01%, Nasdaq down 0.98%, S&P 500 down 0.80% [Sina Finance]( . Continued pressure after FOMC, but falling oil prices narrowed the declines. S&P 500 has fallen around 5% from the year-start high.
🇨🇳 **A-Shares**
Yesterday (Friday) Shanghai Composite Index broke below 4,000 points, closing at 3,957 points, hitting a new year-low, with over 4,700 individual stocks in the red [Sina Finance]( . Non-ferrous metals led declines with -6.1%, while coal and petrochemicals rose against the trend [Sina]( , sector divergence extremely pronounced.
600392 Shenghe Resources and 000751 Zinc Industry Stock were pounded along with the non-ferrous sector this week, but fundamentals unchanged. War ends = risk appetite recovers = non-ferrous benefits first. Selling now means handing over positions at emotional lows, waiting a bit won't hurt.
**Today's Retail Investor Quote:** History's biggest crypto regulatory positive, completely buried by a message that perfectly fit expectations. Markets never follow the script—good things take time to marinate, bad things hit you first. Those who can hold on will wait for the delayed spring. 🌱
*Not investment advice, don't blame me if you lose money.*