Analyste : Bitcoin est dans la position la plus proche de la zone d'achat depuis près de trois ans

金色财经_ · 2026-04-01T07:54:05+00:00

Les données de CryptoQuant indiquent qu'actuellement, le prix au comptant du Bitcoin est supérieur de 21 % au prix de réalisation, ce qui signifie que les détenteurs moyens sont toujours en profit. Historiquement, lorsque le prix au comptant est inférieur au prix de réalisation, cela constitue un signal d'accumulation, mais ce seuil n'a pas encore été atteint, il est donc encore prématuré de considérer cette zone comme une phase d'accumulation.

金色财经_

2026-04-01 07:54:05

Création du résumé en cours

Golden Finance reports that on April 1, CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin’s realized price (the average cost basis benchmark, weighted by the last trade for all coins across the network) is $54,286, while the spot price is $68,774. The gap between the two is about $14,500, meaning the realized price is higher by about 21%.
Looking back at the 2022 bear market, the signal of the actual bottom was when the spot price fell below the realized price. From June to October 2022, Bitcoin’s spot price was below the overall cost basis, and when the spot price was about 15% lower than the realized price, that drawdown almost exactly matched the cycle low of about $15,500.
As early as the COVID crash period in early 2020, there was a similar breakdown. These periods are true accumulation zones, because the entire network’s average is in a loss state. Historically, when the market as a whole is at a loss, buying is one of Bitcoin’s most reliable entry signals.
This is not the case right now. The spot price is 21% higher than the realized price, which means the average holder is still in profit—a significant buffer. If Bitcoin were to fall from current levels back to the realized price, it would need to drop to roughly $54,000, equivalent to another 20% decline.
It’s worth noting that the gap between the spot price and the realized price is narrowing extremely fast. At the end of 2024, when Bitcoin was trading above $119,000, the premium was about 120%, and within roughly 15 months it has been compressed to 21%. This is one of the fastest periods—besides a complete crash—for approaching the realized price line. CryptoQuant analyst Oinonen pointed out on Monday that Bitcoin has entered the so-called “accumulation zone” and compared it to the bottom in late 2022. But this assessment is premature.
CryptoQuant’s own charts show that the definition of the 2022 accumulation zone is that the spot price trades at or below the realized price. And the box they drew on the current price trend shows that the spot price is still far above the metric that defines that range.

BTC3,05%

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