As the US government可能在1月30日停摆, Bitcoin is facing a critical macro test. Historical data shows that Bitcoin tends to amplify existing trends rather than act as a hedge. Recently, Bitcoin's price movement has been fragile, with a pullback occurring within the range of approximately $95,000 to $98,000. On-chain data indicates that due to halving and increasing actual losses for investors, miners are under pressure. Once the government shutdown occurs, Bitcoin is very likely to behave like a risk asset, with short-term downward volatility highly probable, which aligns with the current weak demand signals and market structure.

Analysts say Bitcoin is still in a bear market, having dipped to $86,000 before rebounding to $87,800. $80,000 is not the bottom and may further decline. USD/JPY fluctuations, US budget uncertainties, and rising volatility are intensifying market defenses. #BTC

Analysts including Mr. Wall Street and Axel Adler Jr. say Bitcoin is still in a bear market after dipping to ~$86K and trading near $87.8K. $80K was a 'false bottom' with lower targets possible amid USD/JPY tensions and volatility. #BTC