Smart Money Has Turned: Will BTC 76,600 Break Down and Crash? Lao Zhang Guides You to See the Signs of Institutional Retreat

2026.04.20 Late Night Review | Structure Has Changed, Waiting for Direction
When the market structure quietly shifts, smart money has quietly positioned itself. Our task is not to predict the future, but to follow the traces they leave behind.
In tonight’s review, the chart clearly tells a story of a structural change. The big brother is struggling around 76,600, while the second brother has already reached 2,268. The key support level is under test, and bearish signals within the SMC framework are emerging one by one.
Big Brother Review: The Dance on the Key Support Line
Current Price: About 76,600 | Trend: Volatile and Slightly Bearish

Big Brother’s candlestick chart depicts a fierce battle between bulls and bears:
• Structural Change: Price has fallen from the high of 79,477, forming a clear lower high. If the current key support at 76,600 is confirmed to break, it will officially constitute a structural change, signaling the destruction of the short-term upward structure.
• Order Block Battles:
◦ Resistance Zone: 78,500-79,000 forms a strong supply zone (resistance order block), tested multiple times without success.
◦ Support Zone: 76,000-76,600 is the last line of defense for the bulls (support order block), currently under heavy fire from the bears.
• Liquidity Focus: The area below 75,000-76,000 is a target for bears to hunt liquidity; while above 80,000 could be a trap for trap traders.
Core Judgment: Big Brother stands at a crossroads. 76,600 is the current dividing line between bulls and bears. Holding it means continuation of consolidation; breaking below signals a structural turn to the downside, possibly rapidly seeking liquidity.
Second Brother Review: Weakness Fully Revealed, Defense Line in Urgent Need
Current Price: About 2,268 | Trend: Weak Decline
The second brother’s chart more clearly points to a bearish trend:
• Clear Downtrend Structure: A classic lower low + lower high (Lower Low + Lower High) bearish structure has formed, trend is bearish.
• Key Zones:
◦ Resistance Clearly Defined: Around 2,400 has become a failed “breakout zone,” forming strong resistance.
◦ Support Crisis: The current price is testing the 2,250-2,280 support order block. Once broken, space below opens up.
• Gap to Fill: There is a fair value gap between 2,320-2,350, and any weak rebound may be blocked here.
Core Judgment: Second brother’s structure is weaker than big brother’s, with 2,266 as the last short-term barrier. If broken, downward momentum will accelerate.
Strategy Deduction: Follow the Trend, Act When Opportunities Arise
The market tilt has shifted toward the bears. The strategy should mainly follow the weak structure that has already appeared, while preparing for a small probability of support rebound.
“Southbound” Main Strategy (Follow the Trend)
• Big Brother: Below 76,600 (after breakdown), confirm CHoCH on 15-minute chart or rebound back to this level is blocked, return above 76,600, target 75,000-76,000.
• Second Brother: Below 2,266 (after breakdown) or rebound to the 2,320-2,350 gap area, if broken, rebound is weak, or if a bearish Pin Bar or similar structure appears at the gap, with 2,280 (return above support), target 2,200-2,150.
Logic: Follow the downward structure that has already appeared. When support is broken or a clear resistance is reached on rebound, look for high reward-to-risk shorting opportunities.
“Northbound” Defensive Strategy (Against Small Trends)
Only when strong bullish reversal signals appear at key support zones (such as 15-minute structure reversal, bullish engulfing, etc.) can a small long position be attempted with strict stop-loss:
• Big Brother: Strong bullish signals at 76,000-76,600, target 78,000-78,500.
• Second Brother: Strong bullish signals at 2,250-2,280, target 2,320-2,350 (fill the gap).
Core Reminders
1. Wait for Confirmation: The essence of SMC is following. Before price clearly breaks key levels (especially breaks support), stay patient and avoid left-side guessing.
2. Beware of Traps: Rapid dips near support may be “liquidity hunts,” followed by V-shaped rebounds. Always wait for a close below the level, not just a wick.
3. Follow the Trend First: In clearly formed structures, counter-trend rebounds are high-risk. Position sizes should be strictly controlled.
(Above is only my personal market analysis based on the SMC framework, not investment advice. Please make independent decisions and bear your own risks.)$BTC $ETH