I have been observing a rather disturbing pattern in the markets for months, and I believe it is finally starting to make sense. Everything points to Jane Street and their manipulation tactics that go far beyond what most people perceive.

The clearest evidence comes from the India case. Between January 2023 and March 2025, Jane Street generated approximately 365 billion rupees in net profits operating in the Indian market. But here’s the interesting part: SEBI identified that on 21 specific days, around 48.4 billion rupees could be illicit gains. They issued a 105-page order banning the company from operating, and froze custodial funds. The structure is what really matters to understand.

Jane Street operated through multiple entities: an FPI from Singapore, another from Hong Kong, and two subsidiaries in India. This separation allows the visible operations and the actual profits to belong to different companies. Clever, right? During the morning, they massively bought shares and futures of Bank Nifty, pushing the index higher. At the same time, their foreign entities established huge short positions in options: selling calls, buying puts. The options volume was several times higher than the stock volume. Then, in the afternoon, they reversed the direction and sold everything in large quantities, pressuring the index downward. The result: the calls they sold became worthless, the puts they bought skyrocketed. Small losses in stocks, massive gains in derivatives. A typical day: they bought for 437 billion rupees, lost 6.16 billion in cash/futures, but made 73.49 billion in options. Net profit: 67.33 billion rupees.

Now, here’s where it connects with what we’re seeing in cryptocurrencies. For months, we’ve observed consistent selling pressure around 10 AM Eastern US time. That’s exactly when the US stock market opens, when liquidity is at its peak and derivatives are active. The pattern: sharp decline, forced liquidations of leveraged longs, more selling, then recovery. In crypto, a 2-3% drop is enough to wipe out huge positions. If someone with massive capital actively sells at that moment, it triggers the cascade. The liquidation mechanisms amplify the movement. It’s structurally identical to what Jane Street was doing in India: manipulating the underlying asset to then capture real gains in derivatives.

There’s one more thing we cannot ignore. After the lawsuit against Terraform was filed on February 23, 2026, this 10 AM pattern simply disappeared. Bitcoin stopped experiencing those coordinated drops. When a recurring mechanical pattern vanishes just as regulatory pressure arrives, that says a lot.

The Terra case is also revealing. In May 2022, UST collapsed from a $40 billion ecosystem to zero in days. According to allegations, Jane Street knew that Curve’s liquidity was exhausted. They executed a sale of $85 million in UST under extremely low liquidity conditions. The peg collapsed. But here’s the interesting part: it was reported that Jane Street maintained direct contact with Do Kwon during the crisis, discussing buying Bitcoin at very low discounts, potentially between $200-500 million. If you push the anchoring mechanism, you force Terraform to mobilize its Bitcoin reserves. If you know this will happen, you accelerate the pressure. You sell more UST, weaken its trading position, and acquire Bitcoin at ridiculous prices. Coincidence? Maybe. But the timing and sequence of events tell a different story.

Then there’s the matter of Bitcoin ETFs. Jane Street became an authorized participant in major Bitcoin ETFs, allowing them to create and redeem shares, hedge with futures, sell options. Public 13F filings only show long positions. They do not show short futures, swaps, sold options, or net exposure after hedging. What you see publicly is only the visible interface. The full derivatives book remains hidden. Combine this with the pressure pattern in spot markets. When the price is under pressure in a specific window while ETF exposure increases, superficial data doesn’t reveal the full strategy.

Now, the most revealing: the Millennium Management case. In early 2024, two experienced traders left Jane Street to join Millennium. Jane Street sued Millennium for stealing a “highly valuable” trading strategy. During the trial, it was revealed that this strategy focused on options on Indian indices and generated approximately $1 billion in profits just in 2023. One billion dollars. That changed everything. The lawsuit revealed that the strategy was options-driven, operated in Indian index derivatives, and had extraordinary, repeatable profits. But almost everything about how it actually worked remained secret. Court documents were censored. The public never saw the algorithm, the timing model, delta management, or entity coordination. We only saw the number: one billion dollars. The engine remains hidden. The case was settled in December 2024 without a full trial. The terms were not made public. The core operating mechanism remains sealed.

But here’s what really concerns me. The same company repeatedly appears in every major market drop or volatility event. Jane Street faced allegations from SEBI for index manipulation in India. It was named by Trump Media for uncovered short-selling practices. It’s involved in litigation over Terra. Acts as an authorized participant for Bitcoin ETFs. Maintains massive positions without revealing derivatives hedges. SBF worked three years at Jane Street before founding Alameda and FTX. When FTX collapsed, Jane Street was the second-largest buyer in the Anthropic funding round, investing $100 million. Now those shares are worth $2.1 billion.

Is it a coincidence that a quantitative trading firm is at the center of every manipulation, every liquidity crisis, every massive volatility event? Or is there a deeper structural problem? When a firm can manipulate target markets with massive capital, add even more exposure in derivatives, control liquidations, coordinate between entities, and keep execution systems highly confidential, superficial data can never reflect the whole picture.

That’s what keeps me watching. It’s not an isolated event. It’s a repeated, structural pattern crossing Indian markets, cryptocurrencies, ETFs, and traditional finance. And the machine driving it remains hidden in censored documents and sealed strategies.