I just checked the latest data — traders on Polymarket and Kalshi are almost unanimous: the Fed will not change rates in April. The probability of holding at 3.50–3.75% is now close to 96%. This is a pretty strong signal, especially considering that a week ago, confidence was lower.

Interestingly, traders do not really believe in Trump's pressure. The president has been constantly pushing Powell through social media, but the markets are not buying it. After the March FOMC decision to keep rates unchanged, people became even more convinced that the Fed will wait rather than rush. Even contracts on rate cuts have negligible chances — less than 1%.

I looked at forecasts for the entire 2026 year, and there’s also something interesting. Traders are most counting on zero rate cuts throughout the year — a 31% probability. The next most likely scenario is one cut at 26%. More aggressive scenarios are practically not considered. This indicates that the market is preparing for a long pause rather than a sudden change in course.

Basically, the signal is clear: traders are expecting patience from the Fed, not concessions. It all depends on the data, as Powell said. As long as the economy does not change signals, rates will likely stay the same.