I just saw BTC rise again to $77K this morning, but actually this is still in a tricky zone for long-term holders. CryptoQuant analysts are paying attention to the fact that current LTHs are only averaging a 74% profit, and this margin continues to decrease as the price approaches their cost basis around $38,900. It seems that during every bearish cycle, the price must break below this cost basis to trigger the final surrender phase with realized losses around 20%. Glassnode also confirms that the realized gain-loss ratio has dropped below 1, meaning the market is in full realization loss mode. This is a signal that usually lasts for 6 months before liquidity returns. Interestingly, the current realized account pattern typically becomes a turning point, but there’s no definite signal yet on when the bottom will occur. The supply of BTC in loss has reached 10 million coins, the fourth-highest level in history. Last week’s volatility surged 150%, a level that usually appears during capitulation. Looking at the weekly RSI, it’s already in extreme oversold territory. So despite a small bounce today, sentiment remains very bearish. This movement is more like a dead cat bounce, and $60K still acts as support for lower lows. It will be interesting if the supply continues to rise to 20 million coins next week with 50% in loss, which could be enough capital destruction to mark the market bottom.