Has the "oil up, gold down" trend ended? Spot gold surged to $4,500, Huabao Fund's Precious Metals ETF(159876) reached a high of 4.29.

Or because a key turning-point signal has emerged in Middle East geopolitical events, on Wednesday (March 25) spot gold surged straight up, breaking above $4,500, comprehensively covering color-metal industry leaders such as gold, rare earths, and copper and aluminum, the Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876) saw its intraday rise reach a maximum of 4.29%, closing up 3.17%. It once again reclaimed the 5-day moving average and the 6-month moving average in one move. Notably, funds are accelerating to build positions from the low end; throughout the day, the ETF received net subscriptions of 3.6 million units.

In terms of constituent stocks, nearly 70% of individual stocks rose by more than 2%. Yunnan Germanium led the gains by more than 8%, Zijin Mining for Gold rose by more than 6%, Northern Rare Earth rose by more than 5%, while heavyweights Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum rose 3.23% and 2.99%, respectively.

Why did the nonferrous metals sector surge strongly today? It may be broken down from the following three perspectives:

1、From the macro level, the U.S. intends to extend a ceasefire for one month and discuss a conflict-ending plan with Iran that includes 15 conditions, covering nuclear plans, missile capabilities, and regional issues. Or because a key turning-point signal has emerged in geopolitical events, global assets rallied, oil prices plunged, and spot gold surged straight up to above $4,500. Citic Securities previously noted that after the Middle East geopolitical events end, gold is expected to set new highs again*.

2、From the industry level, the lithium mine theme continues to stay strong. Zimbabwe’s lithium export ban has been in place for nearly a month, and there is still no news of easing; the duration of impact may exceed market expectations earlier. March’s lithium battery industry chain production has fully rebounded, combined with the post-holiday “trade-in for upgrades” policy being implemented and new vehicle launches; demand for lithium batteries remains positive throughout the year. Everbright Securities believes that the lithium price mid-point has the potential to rise in a sustained, trend-like manner*.

3、From the individual-stock level, Zijin Mining is planning a “gold chess game.” Zijin Mining’s wholly owned subsidiary Zijin Gold plans to invest 18.258 billion yuan, obtaining 25.85% equity in Chifeng Gold (after the share issuance is completed) through an agreement-based share transfer + private placement subscription. Zijin Mining’s president Lin Hongfu said that from a long-term perspective, the logic that gold will maintain a high-price level or rise further remains unchanged.

Looking ahead to the nonferrous metals sector’s prospects, Haitong Securities points out an opportunity for oversold rebound: For gold, historical patterns show that after geopolitical conflicts end, gold often rebounds quickly; continuous central bank net buying provides bottom support for gold prices. For industrial metals, on the copper side, supply at the mine end is relatively tight and domestic inventories are being drawn down; on the aluminum side, risks from Middle East production capacity have not yet been fully priced, but basic fundamental support for both remains. For minor metals, varieties such as rare earths, tungsten, molybdenum, and cobalt are catalyzed by geopolitical conflicts; expectations for strategic stockpiling and military procurement replenishment continue to be strengthened. The restoration opportunities after the overall oversold correction in the nonferrous metals sector are worth paying close attention to. *

【The nonferrous metals tailwind is here— the “super cycle” is unstoppable】

Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876) and its feeder fund (Class A: 017140, Class C: 017141) track a target index that comprehensively covers industries such as copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, including different phases of market cycles such as precious metals (hedging/defensive), strategic metals (growth), and industrial metals (recovery). With coverage across all categories, it can better capture the sector’s beta行情**. Meanwhile, the ETF is a margin trading (securities lending and margin financing)-eligible product, making it an efficient tool for one-click allocation to the nonferrous metals sector.

As of the end of February, Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876) has the latest size of 2.427 billion yuan. In the past month, the average daily trading value exceeded 100 million yuan. Among the three ETF products tracking the same benchmark index in the entire market, both the fund size and liquidity rank first.

Institutional viewpoints reference sources: ① “Gold | Review of gold prices and the gold sector after past Middle East conflicts” released March 19 by Citic Securities; ② “2026 Lithium Industry Strategy: A new era as bright as the rising sun— a second wave of lithium mines surges into the great age” released February 22 by Everbright Securities; ③ “Nonferrous: ‘Difficulty’ and ‘Disruption’ under the Middle East geopolitical shock” released March 10 by Haitong Securities.

Reminder: Market volatility in the near term may be relatively large; short-term gains or losses do not indicate future performance. Investors must invest rationally based on their own capital conditions and risk tolerance, and pay close attention to position sizing and risk management.

ETF fee-related notes: When investors subscribe for or redeem fund units, the subscription/redemption agent institutions may charge commissions at a standard not exceeding 0.5% of the subscription or redemption amount. Trading fees in the exchange will be subject to what the securities firm actually charges. The ETF does not charge a sales service fee.

Feeder fund fee-related notes: For Huabao CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF feeder fund (A shares), the subscription fee rate is 1,000 yuan per transaction when the subscription amount is 2 million yuan (inclusive) or above, 0.6% when it is between 1 million yuan (inclusive) and 2 million yuan, and 1% when it is below 1 million yuan. The redemption fee rate is 1.5% when the holding period is less than 7 days, and 0% when the holding period is 7 days (inclusive) or more; it does not charge a sales service fee. Huabao CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF feeder fund (C shares) does not charge a subscription fee. The redemption fee rate is 1.5% when the holding period is less than 7 days, and 0% when the holding period is 7 days (inclusive) or more; the sales service fee is 0.3%.

Risk disclosure: Huabao Nonferrous ETF passively tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index. The index base date is 2013.12.31, and it was published on 2015.7.13. The index’s year-over-year performance over the past 5 full years is: 2021, 35.89%; 2022, -19.22%; 2023, -10.43%; 2024, 2.96%; 2025, 91.67%. The index constituents are adjusted from time to time according to the index compilation rules, and its backtested historical performance does not predict the index’s future performance. The index constituents mentioned in this article are only for illustration; descriptions of individual stocks do not constitute any form of investment advice, and do not represent the holdings information or trading developments of any fund managed by the management company. The risk level of this fund assessed by the fund manager is R3—medium risk, suitable for balanced-type investors (C3) and above; for suitability-matching opinions, please refer to what the sales institution provides. Any information appearing in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, commentary, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, and any form of statements) is for reference only. Investors must bear responsibility for any investment actions they make independently. In addition, any opinions, analyses, and forecasts in this article do not constitute any form of investment advice to readers, nor do they assume any responsibility for any direct or indirect losses caused by the use of this article’s content. Investing in funds involves risk. Past performance of the fund does not represent its future performance. The performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not guarantee the performance of the fund. Investors should invest cautiously.