During the period around the New Year, the cryptocurrency market experienced a three-stage evolution of "sharp deleveraging—weak volatility—technical correction." In early February, Bitcoin's price quickly rebounded from a low of around 60,000 to above 70,000, but the rebound was limited by a lack of confidence in the derivatives market, preventing further gains. In mid to late February, market sentiment shifted to caution, with Bitcoin mainly consolidating in the 68,000-71,000 range with decreasing volume. Multiple attempts to break above 71,000 on the daily chart failed, reflecting pressure from trapped positions at high levels and a lack of buying momentum. Ethereum's trend was even weaker; around February 16, its price broke below the 2000 psychological level, with a low near 1900 seeking support. Overall, it was in a resistant decline within a downward channel. In late February, as leveraged positions were massively liquidated, the market entered a recovery window after overselling. Bitcoin tested the 66,000 support again and rebounded slightly, while Ethereum, after stabilizing above 1900, attempted to move upward. However, overall rebound volume was insufficient, and funding rates remained bearish, indicating the market had not yet exited defensive mode.

Current technical structure shows the market is still in a rebound and testing phase within a bearish trend. Bitcoin's daily chart is constrained by a descending trendline, with short-term resistance at the 68,500-70,000 zone. Only with increased volume and a firm hold above this area can the downward trend be reversed. Key support levels are at 65,500-66,000; if these are lost again, it will accelerate a test of the 60,000 level. Ethereum's 4-hour chart shows a weak rebound with higher lows and higher highs. The main resistance is at the 1980-2000 EMA12 on the daily chart, with strong resistance in the 2050-2100 range. Support levels are at 1920-1935 and 1880-1900. If it falls below 1880, the rebound structure will end, and it will test the 1800 level again. Overall, although there is short-term rebound demand, before the medium-term trend reverses, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies. #加密市场反弹 $BTC