Analysis: Today's ADP data is unlikely to shake the Federal Reserve's December rate cut expectations.

On December 3, according to IFR, a media outlet under Reuters, based on the current market positions, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December is almost certain. The ADP data and PMI data to be released today are not expected to be strong enough to prevent the Fed from cutting rates in December. November’s ADP employment is expected to increase by 10,000, significantly lower than October’s 42,000. Due to a government shutdown causing delays in the release of key labor market data, this month’s ADP report is particularly important. Previously, the ADP weekly employment report has recorded negative values for three consecutive weeks, but it is still unclear how closely these figures align with the actual monthly data.