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油市现在分裂成两个世界。
期货100–104美元,像被政策和过往的经验狠狠摁住
而实际上的现货是140~150美元。
四年前俄乌开打,期货先疯冲139美元,现货只是跟涨,spread才10–13美元。因为桶没真断,只是换主人。
现在不一样。不是“怕断”,是真断了。
长期油价肯定要往下走,但是短期内的动态博弈确实有点意思