交割落地，镣铐解开：周末大饼二饼深度推演

Expiry Done, Shackles Off: Weekend Deep Dive into BTC & ETH
备受瞩目的11月28日大规模期权交割已经尘埃落定。
The highly anticipated massive options expiry on November 28th has finally settled.
站在顶级机构的视角来看，最大的利空（砸盘预期）没有兑现，这就是最大的利好。
From a top-tier institutional perspective, the biggest bearish expectation (a crash) did not materialize, which is itself the biggest bullish signal.
市场脖子上的无形“镣铐”已被解开，现在进入了主力验明正身的时刻。
The invisible "shackles" on the market's neck have been unlocked, and now is the time for major players to reveal their true intentions.
🔹 关于大饼 (BTC)：铸成钢铁防线
🔹 About BTC: Forging an Iron Defense Line
做市商试图将价格砸向$85,000“最大痛点”的尝试彻底失败了。
Market makers' attempts to smash the price toward the $85,000 "Max Pain" level completely failed.
来自现货ETF和战略储备买家的强大被动承接盘，顽强守住了$90,000关口。
Strong passive bid demand from spot ETFs and strategic reserve buyers stubbornly held the $90,000 threshold.
经过本周测试，$88,000 - $90,000区域已从心理关口转化为坚实的“机构底”，市场上方路径已被打开。
After this week's testing, the $88,000 - $90,000 zone has transformed from a psychological barrier into a solid "institutional floor," opening the upward path for the market.
🔹 关于二饼 (ETH)：极度压抑后的“弹簧效应”
🔹 About ETH: The "Coiled Spring" Effect After Extreme Suppression
我们观察到了情绪与资金的终极背离：散户舆论极度悲观，而贝莱德和富达的ETH ETF却在恐慌中连续净买入。
We observed ultimate divergence between sentiment and capital: retail opinion is extremely pessimistic, while BlackRock and Fidelity ETH ETFs showed continuous net inflows amidst the panic.
ETH/BTC汇率依然趴在0.033附近的历史铁底，这是宏观对冲基金眼中最具吸引力的“均值回归”交易机会。
The ETH/BTC ratio remains at a historic rock bottom near 0.033, representing the most attractive "mean reversion" trading opportunity for macro hedge funds.
随着交割压力解除，ETH现在的状态如同被压缩到极致的弹簧，其反弹的爆发力大概率会强于BTC。
With expiry pressure removed, ETH is now like a spring compressed to its limit; its rebound explosiveness will likely be stronger than BTC's.
💡 周末策略：警报解除
💡 Weekend Strategy: All Clear
机构目前的态度是握紧在周五前吸纳的低位筹码，切勿在关键支撑位上方尝试做空。
The current institutional stance is to hold tightly to low-cost chips accumulated before Friday and avoid attempting to short above key support levels.
重点留意在周末低流动性环境下，主力是否会利用极轻的抛压进行拉升。
Pay close attention to whether major players will utilize the light selling pressure in the low-liquidity weekend environment to drive prices up.
(免责声明：本文仅代表第三方观点，不构成任何投资建议。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。Disclaimer: This content represents third-party views only and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks; invest cautiously.)
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