Once-thriving DeFi star Balancer shuttered its doors, DAO governance platform Tally ceased operations, highly anticipated BP "big truck" got rugged, new token listings are in endless decline, venture capital is only investing in payment tracks, and even Liodao's 10 news snippets are almost crypto-unrelated......

After being exposed to crypto for so many years, this is the first time I've experienced such a desperate bear market. When BTC was at 15000 last time, there were various narratives like Ethereum technical stories and Ponzi platforms (which all turned out to be false). Now the market seems to have only "prediction markets" as a lifeline, yet that itself is "Beyond Crypto."

Around this time last year, I started learning about PerpDEX. I missed Hyperliquid, but was fortunate to catch Lighter. Looking back, luck trumped knowledge. My position is still in hand—I sold 2 at peak, bought back 1.5, and even if it drops below 1, I still have several times my initial investment overall. Compared to others' lamentations about their projects, I'm already content.

In my research and understanding, PerpDEX is in its first stage. All previous exploration by predecessors culminated in Hyperliquid. If interested, you can check my video on PerpDEX from last year:

Peers' crude imitations are trying to capture short-term spillover benefits from the track, ultimately resulting in survival of the fittest, just like CEX in 2017. True builders are rare, and I think Lighter is one, which is why I've been holding it steadily.

The key for the next phase of PerpDEX is "RWA Perp"—timing is in the second half of this year. Nasdaq and NYSE's 24/7 trading will usher this track into the true era of "Perp prices everything." Currently, Hyperliquid (tradexyz) and Lighter are at the forefront.

Hyperliquid leans toward larger institutions, while Lighter targets retail traders. The outflow of retail in the bear market has made Lighter's journey extremely difficult, with data continuously declining. I've offered the team many suggestions, but now the token's price drop has made many core community members, including myself, reluctant to mention this project. We're all just enduring. However, I believe the arrival of a bull market will reverse this downturn—it's just a matter of time.

The next bull market may concentrate among U.S. projects. The passage of the "Clear Act" allows many "U.S. entrepreneurs" to act recklessly, making it hard to distinguish between issuing scams or building real things. The inflow of institutional capital will improve this ice-cold market and create new narratives.

In any case, from a data perspective, stablecoins are beginning to increase issuance again. How far are we from spring?