# Global Market Pullback Review & Next Week Strategy

## I. Core Reasons
Three-fold resonance strangling risk assets: Fed's super hawkish decision, oil price pushing inflation, and USD surge.

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## II. Key Trigger: March 19 Rate Decision

| Signal | Impact |
|--------|--------|
| Rate cut expectations zeroed out | Full year only 1 cut → 7 officials see "zero cuts" |
| Powell goes hawkish | Not ruling out further rate hikes, high rates "higher for longer" |
| Data deterioration | PPI hits one-year high, oil prices + geopolitics add fuel to fire |
| USD siphoning effect | Capital reflows to US Treasuries, pressuring gold, tech stocks, commodities |

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## III. Market Performance (March 20)

- US Stocks: Dow down 600 points, Nasdaq retraces 10%
- European Stocks: German DAX down over 10%, triple hit from energy + geopolitics + weak economy
- Gold: Weekly plunge near 8%, largest decline in years
- Crude Oil: High-level oscillation, institutions hint "weakening momentum"

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## IV. Next Week Outlook

| Direction | Logic |
|-----------|-------|
| Consolidation and base testing | Non-trending bear, high volatility washout |
| Institution accumulation | Retail panic selling → low-level accumulation → squeeze rally (reference CPO model) |
| Avoid chasing oil | Even if it rises further, it's the final stage |
| Gold and non-ferrous metals | Oversold or potential bounce, bottom fishing requires staged positioning |

**Operational Advice:** 50% position size, no panic selling, no chasing rallies; watch non-farm payroll data in early April; low-side accumulation of tech leaders after pullback.

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## V. One-Line Conclusion
March selloff is expectation correction + sentiment panic; next week likely the final dip; control positions, no chasing, strategically add core holdings on dips.

> Investment involves risk. The above represents personal views for reference only. #Gate13周年全球庆典