February 12, 2026 BTC Technical Analysis: The market carries risks; trading should be cautious.

1. Current Market Situation (February 12, 11:50)

- Price: Around $65,800 (24h decline of about 4%)
- Structure: Daily chart dominated by bears, 4-hour weak consolidation, hourly oversold recovery
- Funds: CVD continues to decline, net capital outflow, open interest decreasing, selling pressure still dominant

2. Key Support/Resistance (Precise Levels)

- Resistance (Short Position Zone)
- First Resistance: 67,800–68,300 (Strong daily resistance)
- Second Resistance: 69,500–70,000 (Medium-term strong resistance)
- Stop-loss reference: Above 70,500
- Support (Long Position Zone)
- First Support: 64,200–64,500 (Strong daily defense)
- Second Support: 60,000 (Strong support/accumulation zone)
- Stop-loss reference: Below 63,800

3. Technical Indicators (Core Signals)

- Moving Averages: 5/10/20 in a bearish alignment, price moving along the lower Bollinger Band, bearish bias
- MACD: Below zero line, negative histogram, selling pressure persists, no golden cross signal
- RSI: 30–40 range, oversold but no strong divergence, rebound momentum weak
- Volume: Decreasing volume on downward move, rebound lacks volume, absence of sustained buying
- Market Funds: CVD negative expansion, capital outflow, open interest decreasing, bears favored

4. Intraday Strategy (February 12)

- Main Strategy: Focus on shorting during rebounds, small long positions for quick entries and exits
- Short Positions (Priority)
- Entry: 67,800–68,300 resistance zone
- Targets: 66,500 → 65,800 → 64,500
- Stop-loss: Above 68,800
- Long Positions (Only for oversold short-term longs)
- Entry: 64,200–64,500 stabilization zone
- Targets: 66,000–66,500
- Stop-loss: Below 63,800
- Risk Management: Position size ≤10%, strict stop-loss, avoid holding against the trend

5. Key Observations

- Break below 64,200 → opens downside space, target 60,000
- Hold above 68,300 → rebound continues, testing 69,500–70,000
- Watch tonight’s 21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims data impact

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