#美SEC促进加密资产创新监管框架 I looked through BTC's monthly-level correction data from the past few years and found some interesting patterns.

In a bull market, healthy corrections usually stay within the 30%-40% range. If it’s really turning into a bear market, it needs to crash right through 50%. Right now, we’re down 36% from the peak, which to be honest, is still within the safe zone. What’s even more important is the time frame—a normal correction cycle is at least three months, and we’re only halfway through that now.

So my take is: for the next month or so, we’ll probably keep grinding, with the main battleground in the $75,000-$88,000 range, with price action back and forth. If we get a rate cut in December and break out directly, great. If not, that’s fine too—we might just dip below $80,000 again, but it would just mean enduring a bit longer.

But you have to look at the big picture—rate cuts are already on the agenda; it’s just a matter of when. Next year’s easing will only be stronger than this year, and the market response will be even more intense. That previous high at $126,000? I don’t think that’s the top. If things move quickly, it could happen in Q1, or a bit later in Q2, but there will definitely be a solid move.

Worst case scenario, even if I’m totally wrong and we actually enter a bear market, by past patterns, after three straight months of declines we should at least see a technical rebound, right? Not taking advantage of that kind of opportunity would be a real miss.

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