#美联储货币政策 Looking back on the past always evokes deep emotions. These days, seeing the news about the soaring probability of a Fed rate cut, I can't help but recall the years following the 2008 financial crisis. At that time, to address the economic recession, the Federal Reserve implemented large-scale quantitative easing policies, bringing interest rates down to near-zero levels. Back then, cryptocurrencies were still in their infancy, and Bitcoin had just been born.

Now, the market is once again anticipating a shift to accommodative policies by the Fed. According to CME data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has risen to 82.7%. This makes me wonder: will history repeat itself? The quantitative easing back then created a favorable environment for the rise of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. If the Fed really starts lowering rates this time, could it trigger another bull run?

However, we should be wary of being overly optimistic. After all, the current economic environment is quite different from that after 2008. Inflationary pressures still exist, and global geopolitical situations are complicated. Even if the Fed starts cutting rates, the scale and duration may not compare to the previous round.

As someone who has experienced multiple cycles, I recommend that everyone remain cautious and rational. Pay close attention to the Fed's policy moves, but don't blindly follow market sentiment. Whether it's a bull or bear market, always manage risk appropriately, diversify your allocation, and focus on the long term. After all, in this ever-changing market, only by keeping a clear mind can you remain undefeated in the waves of the future.