Each #Bitcoin Cycle Repeats but Not at Fixed Intervals

The Bitcoin cycle is one of the core investment dynamics in the Web3 ecosystem. Typically, the 4-year cycle forms the basis for most market participants’ investment thesis in Bitcoin.

Interestingly, we’ve never seen such a sharp divide between bulls and bears as we do now.

The bears are “right” with their 4-year cycle thesis—until a lower low appears. The bulls are considered “wrong,” but is that really the case? The market has just experienced a 35% correction—something that has happened many times in history.

As Raoul Pal once said: “We could see a 35% correction, people will think the market is over—but it’s actually not.”

I think this perspective is accurate for the current market context.

No viewpoint is entirely correct: The 4-year cycle is “dead”—not true. The 4-year cycle is still “alive”—also not entirely true.

Both have some truth, and a more nuanced view is needed.

Current Cycle The article’s title puts forth a clear thesis: the Bitcoin cycle still exists, but it no longer operates strictly on a time-based schedule; other factors are now key.

This means the cycle continues, but the 4-year halving cycle is no longer the most important indicator.

This cycle has shown clear differences compared to previous ones, and there are several important arguments indicating a market shift.

Why Is That? The emergence of Bitcoin ETFs has completely changed the structural dynamics of price movement.

Almost 60,000 BTC have flowed into the market via ETFs. ETF issuers, when offering this product to clients wanting Bitcoin exposure, are required to purchase real BTC as collateral.

Basically, this buying pressure has accelerated Bitcoin from the $30,000–$40,000 range all the way up to $80,000–$120,000. Thanks to institutional demand, Bitcoin has found a new “price floor” more than 100% higher than the previous bottom.

However, in terms of market structure, nothing has really changed, right? The door has simply opened to a new group of buyers, but the fundamental market dynamics haven’t truly shifted.

On the macro side, there are still plenty of headwinds: quantitative tightening (QT) remains, interest rates are high, and there are various other factors to consider. This means the current cycle is still somewhere on the continuum of previous cycles—but exactly where?

That’s the interesting part, and we can analyze this question from several different angles.

The most important chart to monitor here is gold’s strength. Clearly, Bitcoin is a high-beta asset (high beta), benefiting during economic growth phases, strong PMI, and other positive factors. It does not perform well during periods of economic or social instability, or when gold surges.

While many believe Bitcoin and gold can be correlated, in reality, they are not. I still believe ETFs have created a new price floor for Bitcoin; otherwise, we’d be celebrating Bitcoin breaking $40,000 right now, instead of being upset about the recent correction back to $80,000. Yes, $80,000. It sounds crazy, considering that less than three years ago it was around $16,000.

In previous cycles, when gold surged, risk assets typically underperformed—and that could absolutely repeat this cycle, as everything is macro-driven.

The 4-year liquidity cycle only existed after 2008, coinciding with Bitcoin’s peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021. Pre-2008, liquidity cycles were much longer, averaging 8–10 years.

Based on that, it’s likely the current cycle is only midway through the overall bull cycle, and as Bitcoin becomes a more mature asset, the thesis will shift toward gradually lower volatility over time and lower annual returns as asset size becomes massive.

Sadly, the clear 5x opportunity for Bitcoin every 4 years may no longer be predictable.

To be honest, Bitcoin’s core thesis was never to become that kind of asset. Its core thesis is to become a safe, transparent, stable asset—1 Bitcoin = 1 Bitcoin—so people can plan their financial futures with more certainty.

Isn’t that the goal of modern economics? Inflation is soaring, and people are forced to take on more risk to beat the “hurdle rate” out of fear of becoming poorer over time, since everyone understands fiat’s value is steadily eroding.

Another major argument is found in the data—not directly correlated with the Bitcoin cycle, but perhaps actually connected—the correlation between CNY/USD and ETH/BTC.

Why Does This Matter? The strength of the Chinese yuan (CNY) is a core indicator reflecting corporate health in the US and thus the global economy. A stronger yuan (and thus a weaker USD) improves the balance sheets of both countries, increases profit margins, and boosts economic growth. This, in turn, sparks stronger risk-on (risk appetite) investment behavior.

History shows: whenever CNY/USD bottoms, ETH/BTC also bottoms.

When comparing the data, this has held true in previous cycles (though sample size is only N=3).

In 2016, the market saw a CNY bottom, and ETH/BTC also bottomed at the same time. The same happened in 2019. And this repeated recently, around April 2025.

In other words, the chart shows these two indicators remain closely correlated. This allows us to assume that if we compare cycles, the current Bitcoin cycle may be extending, and we could be in a phase similar to mid-2016 or mid-2019 in previous cycles.

Business Cycle vs. Bitcoin Cycle

The business cycle thesis (business cycle) is the strongest rationale for why the market isn’t rising as much as we’d all like. This creates a mismatch between expectation and reality for any investor, and it has “stress-tested” all founders to see if they have enough capital to survive in this kind of market.

This is necessary, because as the market matures, the simple “tricks” for launching tokens will no longer work. This is a long-term game.

Therefore, the business cycle can be evaluated via the valuation ratio between Copper (Copper) and Gold (Gold), or by combining PMI data with economic growth. You can use any method.

As I mentioned, based on the earlier chart of the yuan–dollar rate, the bottoming of ETH/BTC and CNY/USD suggests we may be at the worst phase of the cycle—which also matches the two similar points in the past.

If we combine the business cycle with that, we may reach the same conclusion: that we’re right in the middle of “peak bear” (peak bear), with Bitcoin at $90,000. Sounds strange, right?

The business cycle is still at the bottom, but starting to edge up as PMI data improves and the FED conducts overnight repo operations to stimulate the economy.

When combining the business cycle’s strength/weakness with Bitcoin cycles, once again, the correlation is very clear. This stage is similar to Q1–Q2/2016 and Q4/2019.

We are far from Bitcoin’s peak, and are still in crypto’s “final easy cycle” with outsized returns.

Looking Ahead for Bitcoin Looking toward 2026–2027, it’s hard to be bearish. Yes, if the time-based 4-year cycle hypothesis is correct, then we’ll enter a strong bear market.

However, looking at recent and upcoming news, it is completely different from what I experienced in 2018 and 2022.

Bank of America has opened the door for investors to allocate 1–4% of assets into spot Bitcoin ETFs. The Clarity Act was passed, paving the way for DeFi founders to build solutions helping financial institutions move activity on-chain. The FED has started overnight repo operations and needs to cut rates to stimulate the domestic economy; this means more liquidity, and QE is almost certain to occur.

These are near-perfect copies of the post-2016 and 2019/2020 periods.

The 2015–2016 period was the most recent US recession, leading to a huge liquidity injection, sparking the major bull run we saw in Bitcoin.

2020, of course, was the largest “money printer” in history when COVID-19 hit.

Now, I’m not saying we’ll definitely see new all-time highs for Bitcoin, but what I do mean is people shouldn’t cling too tightly to the assumption that the 4-year cycle will lead the market in the future.

Everything is nuanced, and one thing is for sure:

Bitcoin is the safest, most solid form of money ever created. Ultimately, everyone will participate, and right now we’re still ahead of the biggest mainstream money wave.