2025-12-03 14:00:29

#美SEC促进加密资产创新监管框架 $BTC $BNB Is the Fed about to cut rates? What does this mean for the crypto world?

The latest data from the CME “FedWatch” tool shows that the market now sees an 89.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December. That figure basically makes it a sure thing—the easing cycle might really be on the way.

Is a rate cut good or bad for cryptocurrencies? The answer is pretty clear. Lower interest rates mean it’s cheaper to borrow money, there will be more cash in the market, and some of that capital seeking high returns will naturally look back at crypto assets. Bitcoin’s dual nature—as both a safe-haven digital gold and an exciting risk asset—makes it particularly attractive to new capital whenever rate cut expectations start rising. With Bitcoin’s price having traded sideways for so long, maybe it’s just waiting for this opportunity to break out.

What’s even more interesting is the timeline. The same data shows that by January next year, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is over 25%. This suggests the market is not just betting on a single rate cut, but is already positioning for a more aggressive easing path. If this expectation keeps building, the overall risk appetite in the market could be boosted, and Ethereum and other major coins might catch the next rotation rally.

But then again, expectations can be a double-edged sword. With an 89.2% probability already factored in, the market has more or less priced it in. When the rate cut actually happens in December, could it end up being a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event? The key will be how dovish Powell’s subsequent comments are, and whether inflation data continues to play along.

To put it simply, expectations can drive the market up for a while, but for a real bull run, you still need sustained inflows of real capital.

BTC1.93%

BNB1.25%

ETH2.54%

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HashRateHustler

· 12-06 13:37

89.2% has already been absorbed, so when it actually goes live, it might end up crashing the market instead. How should we play this round?

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SatsStacking

· 12-06 10:28

There's an 89.2% probability that it's already been priced in. When it actually lands, who knows—it might just crash the market. --- Instead of watching the Fed, you should watch Powell's words. This guy can turn the world upside down with a single sentence. --- Rate cuts mean more money, but how much of that will actually flow into crypto? That's the real question, isn't it? --- Bitcoin has been consolidating for so long, it's been waiting for this signal. Now we just have to see if it can break out in December. --- "Good news gets priced in and turns into bad news"—you hear this every cycle, but what actually happens? --- Will there be another 50bp cut in January next year? If monetary easing is that aggressive, then all risk assets are going to take off. --- Expectations are one thing, but actual capital inflow is another. Wake up, everyone. --- Whether ETH and the major coins can rotate depends entirely on how dovish Powell is. This guy controls the tempo. --- Basically, it's just a bet that the Fed will back down and Powell will soften his stance. That's all there is to it.

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StablecoinGuardian

· 12-04 22:34

What does 89.2% mean? Has the market pretty much priced this in already? If there really is a rate cut in December, will the market actually dump instead?

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TokenomicsTherapist

· 12-03 14:30

89.2%—that number has long been priced in, and when it actually happens, the market might even dump... But wait, can this rally really last? Lower rates mean more money, sure, but not as much might flow into crypto as people imagine. If Powell isn’t as dovish as expected, it’s going to be awkward. Bitcoin has been waiting for this moment for the past six months—if it can’t break its previous high, it’s all for nothing. The easing cycle sounds nice, but it really depends on whether inflation cooperates. Can we really hit a new all-time high this time? Feels like expectations have already been fully priced in. Once all the good news is out, see you in December... It sounds nice to call it ample liquidity, but honestly, it’s just betting on Powell’s words.

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BlockchainFoodie

· 12-03 14:29

honestly the market already priced in this whole rate cut thing... 89.2% is basically the appetizer already served, so what's actually on the main course when powell speaks? 🤔

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ColdWalletGuardian

· 12-03 14:22

89.2%—that number has long been priced in by the market. When the time comes, will it be another “sell the news” event? — Instead of waiting for rate cuts, it’s better to watch actual capital flows. Expectations can only fool people for so long. — Even if we enter an easing cycle, it won’t mean much unless there’s continuous inflow of new capital. Otherwise, it’s just empty hype. — Every word Powell says is like gold, but I trust inflation data more—that’s the real bombshell. — The market’s been moving sideways for so long, it’s possible it’s just waiting for this opportunity, but don’t overestimate the impact of a single rate cut. — I’m tired of hearing about Bitcoin’s safe-haven narrative. The truth is, it goes up when risk appetite rises and falls when there’s no money. — A total of 50 basis points in rate cuts next year? Just listen and move on—the market’s imagination always exceeds your expectations. — A true bull market needs incremental capital; you can’t just rely on central banks loosening policy. You really need to understand this.

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consensus_whisperer

· 12-03 14:20

89.2% probability has already been priced in by the market. Will the market actually drop on the day of the December rate cut? I've seen this trick too many times. --- Whenever an easing cycle comes, people love to hype that "money will flow into crypto," but in the end? It all depends on whether institutions actually put real money in. --- Those waiting for Bitcoin to break out might have to keep waiting. Expectations alone aren’t enough; without real buying, it’s all just castles in the air. --- Powell can turn the market around with just one sentence. That’s why you always have to watch the news conferences if you’re trading crypto—truly wild. --- Only a 25% probability of a cumulative 50bp cut by January next year? People are already speculating on future trades before anything even happens. This bubble is something else. --- All the good news is already priced in. Will December really turn out to be “sell the news”? I bet some people will lose big. --- Instead of waiting on Powell, it’s better to wait for institutional wallets to start spending. That’s the real signal.

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WhaleWatcher

· 12-03 14:16

89.2%—to be honest, that number feels a bit too certain, which actually makes me a little worried. --- Lowering interest rates means more money, that logic makes sense, but I'm just afraid we'll get dumped on again. --- Sigh, looks like it's time to hype things up based on expectations again, I'm way too familiar with this routine. --- Powell's words decide everything, seriously. --- After consolidating for so long, isn't the market just building up strength? Just waiting. --- "It's bullish until it turns bearish"—that saying really hits home, it's always like this. --- Is this real easing or just another "boy who cried wolf" situation? Let's wait and see. --- Liquidity coming in is what really matters. If it's just price action based on expectations, it's bound to crash sooner or later. --- Will mainstream coins rotate this time? I'm not too sure about that. --- If the inflation data doesn't cooperate, that'll be awkward, haha.

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NFTHoarder

· 12-03 14:09

89.2%—this probability is already fully priced in. When the actual rate cut happens, it’ll definitely drop... --- It’s more hype about expectations. I just want to ask, will Powell go dovish again? --- It’s a double-edged sword, that’s all. The key is still where inflation goes. --- That’s just how crypto is: when there's money, it pumps; when there isn't, it dumps. Simple and brutal. --- Bitcoin has been ranging for so long. If we’re really just waiting for this chance, I’m gonna lose it... --- The bullish news is right out in the open—the market must have priced it in by now. --- No matter how good it sounds, there has to be real money coming in, otherwise it's just an empty promise. --- 50 basis points in January next year? The market’s dreaming...

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