#ETH走势分析 $BTC $ETH $SUI

Tonight's ADP employment report could become a key variable for the crypto market in December.

The data will be released at 9:15 PM, but market expectations have already diverged sharply—FactSet offers an optimistic forecast of 40,000 new jobs, while Bloomberg only dares to call for 5,000. This huge gap is telling in itself: no one is really sure about the state of the labor market.

What's even more nuanced is that, due to the government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' official report has been delayed until December 16, making ADP's private data the only available "leading indicator." Although its recent forecasting accuracy has been lacking, in an information vacuum, any clue may be overinterpreted.

Looking at secondary data, the labor market is cooling but hasn't collapsed. ADP's weekly tracking shows an average of 13,500 layoffs per week over the past month, and the Fed's Beige Book also notes that employment demand has weakened in half the regions. However, initial jobless claims have fallen to 216,000, and the employment component of consumer confidence is stabilizing—overall, it's a "moderate slowdown" rather than a "cliff drop."

Policymakers are even more conflicted. Powell previously said a rate cut is "not a foregone conclusion," but voting members like Williams and Waller have recently sent more dovish signals. The market has already voted with its feet—CME rate futures now show an 87% probability of a rate cut in December, up from just 37% a month ago.

The problem is, if tonight's ADP data is unexpectedly strong, this consensus could instantly unravel. For the crypto market, rate cut expectations are one of the key supports for the current rebound. If the narrative wobbles, short-term volatility may be unavoidable.

We'll see the outcome tonight.