#加密市场回调 Recently reviewed my trades and realized I fell into several pitfalls.

First mistake: Drawing conclusions just from the headline. When the news that QT ended came out, BTC didn’t move much in the early session, so I thought all the good news had already been priced in. But I overlooked two things—the US stock market hadn’t opened yet, and I didn’t even check how much liquidity the Fed actually injected through the overnight repo.

Once the US market opened that evening, I got schooled. BTC surged 6%, IBIT traded $1 billion in just half an hour, and that’s when I realized I had no sense of the scale of the numbers. Later, I asked AI and finally understood that those tens of billions of dollars in ON RRP operations are basically a form of money printing, even if most people don’t treat it that way.

Second lesson: Don’t underestimate the power of traditional capital.

Conservative institutions like Vanguard, which manage retirement and pension funds with holding periods of 30-40 years, are now starting to allocate to BTC ETFs. That signal is stronger than any price call. Remember, they’re one of the world’s largest passive investment funds—when this type of money enters, it doesn’t just bring price volatility, it fundamentally changes the market structure.

Thinking back, just because prices didn’t rise after the morning’s news doesn’t mean the positive catalyst has failed—it could just be that TradFi money hadn’t arrived yet. The rally after the US market opened was essentially a direct result of institutional capital flowing in through ETFs.

So next time there’s a macro positive catalyst, I need to ask a few more questions:
- What are the specific numbers? How do they compare to historical data?
- What might happen before and after the US market opens?
- Which institutions might rebalance their portfolios because of this?

Don’t just trade based on headlines—follow the data, and think through what might happen behind the headlines. The market won’t stop and wait for you to figure it out.