#十二月降息预测

Key economic data: The non-farm payroll report (NFP) and inflation data (CPI/PCE) for December will be crucial in determining the Federal Reserve's actions. If the data shows that the labor market is not as weak as expected or inflation rebounds, the probability of rate cuts may quickly decline, triggering market volatility.
• Official guidance from the Federal Reserve: In addition to whether or not to cut interest rates, the "dot plot" released after the December meeting will reveal officials' forecasts for interest rates in 2026, which will affect the market's judgment on the long-term easing cycle, and its importance is not less than a single rate cut.
• Internal factors in the crypto space: The cryptocurrency market has its own logic. For example, the listing of the Dogecoin Spot ETF has introduced new variables, but its massive trading volume coincides with the selling behavior of "whale" addresses, leading to liquidation risks for highly leveraged positions. This reminds investors to be aware of the structural risks within the crypto space.