The sudden fall of BTC in yesterday's morning session really scared quite a few people, and the rebound that had just stabilized was directly interrupted. However, after reviewing the latest on-chain data this morning, I found that things aren't as bad as imagined—panic sentiment is actually cooling down.

Look at a key indicator: Effective Adjusted Realized Loss (EARL). On December 1st, this number was about 820 million USD, compared to the 2.34 billion USD "bleeding" on November 21st, a reduction of two-thirds in scale. What does this indicate? Although the price is falling, the intensity of cutting losses is not as severe as before.

Keep an eye on the realized losses flowing into the exchange: on December 1st, it was only around 80 million USD, which is not only much lower than the 320 million on November 21st, but also less than the two waves on November 14th and 17th. From a continuity perspective, there are no signs of exacerbated panic selling.

Looking back at the extreme value of 2.34 billion on November 21, it is very likely that this is the "panic ceiling" of this round of adjustments. As long as there are no major negative news hitting in succession, even if the price fluctuates a few more times, the loss data will most likely continue to shrink.

To determine whether the short-term has bottomed out, there is a very practical signal: during the fall, the EARL daily data becomes smaller and smaller, or the overall trend is declining. In simple terms, it means that the panic selling is losing momentum, which often indicates that the market is approaching a phase bottom.

So this round of adjustment is uncomfortable, but from a data perspective,