There may be major actions before the end of the year.

Market rumors suggest that a former White House economic advisor will take over an important financial position before Christmas. If this turns out to be true, the monetary policy tone for 2025 could change drastically. Interestingly, the interest rate derivatives market has already voted with real money — the probability of a rate cut in January has surged to 87.6%, and this is not just talk.

**The recent trend of Bitcoin is a bit strange.**

A trader from an established investment bank in Europe noticed a detail: over the past few months, the correlation coefficient between BTC prices and the Japanese yen against the US dollar has soared to 0.8. What does this mean? Essentially, when the yen falls, Bitcoin falls along with it; when the yen rises, BTC recovers as well. What logic is hidden behind this?

Some speculate that arbitrage funds are looking for new liquidity outlets in global markets. After the Bank of Japan's policy shift, the previously profitable yen interest rate trades are no longer viable, and this hot money needs to find a place to go. The crypto market operates 24/7 with decent liquidity, making it a natural alternative.

**There is an even more subtle signal: stablecoin regulation may be secretly influencing the market.**

Although the U.S. and Europe each have their own rules on the surface, recent market news suggests that the regulatory bodies on both sides are privately discussing a certain "technical standard consistency." If this really happens, the compliance paths for mainstream stablecoins like USDT and USDC will become much clearer, and the friction costs of global capital flow will also decrease significantly.

In the next few days, there are a few things worth keeping an eye on: first, whether any key figures suddenly talk about monetary policy on social media; second, whether the BTC and yen exchange rate can maintain this strange synchronization; third, whether the EU will suddenly revise certain provisions of the MiCA legislation.

The market has now entered a state of "panic and alarm," where any rumor could trigger severe fluctuations. Position management is more important than predicting direction; when liquidity dries up, there's no way to escape.