This December, the global market is experiencing a rare liquidity range-bound battle. Have you noticed that the recent fluctuation of Bitcoin has become particularly strange?

The reason is simple—two completely opposing forces are exerting influence at the same time.

**The east is tightening, while the west is easing**

Let's start with the east. The probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates has soared to 80%, which is no small matter. For decades, global traders have been playing a game: borrowing yen at almost zero cost, converting it to dollars to buy U.S. stocks and pump into cryptocurrencies. How much money is that? A conservative estimate is 19 trillion dollars.

Japan is now going to raise interest rates, what does it mean? These cheap funds must flow back to close positions. German financial analysts have already noticed that Bitcoin's recent movements are almost in sync with the fluctuation of the yen—this is by no means a coincidence, but a signal that arbitrage funds are being reallocated.

Looking to the west again. Just as Japan is preparing to tighten, Trump is fully "pressuring" for interest rate cuts. He has publicly revealed the top candidate for the next Federal Reserve chair—the White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett, a staunch supporter of interest rate cuts. How did the market react? The expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December shot up to 87.6%.

**Your position is at a crossroads**

On one side is the knife that could draw away liquidity, and on the other is the water that promises to bring liquidity. Bitcoin, as the most sensitive detector of global risk sentiment, is now being torn by these two forces.

Closing carry trades will bring short-term selling pressure, but the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will provide long-term support. In this covert battle between Eastern and Western central banks, who will ultimately prevail? Can the coins in your hand withstand this round of fluctuations?