#数字货币市场回调 The Bank of Japan's policy direction has suddenly changed, catching the market off guard!

Data from December 2 shows that the predictive market's expectations for the Bank of Japan's monetary policy in December have undergone drastic changes. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike surged from about 50% to 85%, while the likelihood of maintaining the status quo plummeted to 14%. This sudden shift in expectations is truly unexpected.

The trigger is the latest statement from Ueda Kazuo on December 1 in Nagoya. The Central Bank Governor's hawkish stance this time is quite evident, contrasting sharply with the previous cautious wait-and-see attitude. He stated plainly that he will comprehensively assess the pros and cons of interest rate hikes at the policy meeting on December 18-19 and make a final decision. More notably, he emphasized that the continued depreciation of the yen is exacerbating inflationary pressures, and the Central Bank is already prepared to respond.

Looking back at October, Ueda's remarks focused on external economic uncertainties - the potential impact of U.S. trade policy adjustments and tariff risks on the profits and wage growth of Japanese companies. At that time, the market generally held a cautious attitude towards a rate hike in November.

However, in just over a month, the policy narrative has shifted from "preventing external shocks" to "dealing with internal inflation and pressure on the exchange rate". Traders quickly adjusted their positions, viewing a 25 basis point interest rate hike in December as a high-probability event. The speed at which the Central Bank has shifted its policy has intensified market volatility.

In the coming weeks, the decisions of the Bank of Japan will directly impact global capital flows and the pricing of risk assets. Investors need to closely monitor the final outcomes of the policy meetings and their ripple effects.