A belated September US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) report has torn the market in half.

Can you believe it? The number of jobs actually surged by 119,000, which is more than double the market expectation of 52,000. The White House immediately came out to support it, boasting about the resilience of the economy. However, after this data was released, the reactions in the stock market and the cryptocurrency space were like two parallel universes.

How's the US stock market? It's on fire. The Nasdaq skyrocketed, surging over 2.5% in a single day. The index of the seven tech giants is even more outrageous, soaring nearly 2000 points. The biggest contributor to this wave of market activity is NVIDIA—its revenue for the third fiscal quarter surged 62% year-on-year, and the earnings guidance for the next quarter far exceeded expectations. The stock price responded by rising nearly 4%, and the semiconductor and internet sectors followed suit with a collective surge.

But what about the crypto market? It's a completely different scene.

The market directly plummeted by about 5%, and gold also did not escape disaster, with spot prices once crashing by more than 1.5%. Although it later staged a deep V-shaped rebound, it still couldn't hold the $4100 level. The simultaneous collapse of safe-haven assets and risk assets has left many people confused.

The core of the problem is actually very simple: Is there still a chance for interest rate cuts?

With the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) being so strong, will the Federal Reserve still cut interest rates in December? Experts at Goldman Sachs are still insisting that the labor market is actually weak, but the market doesn't buy this. The CME's "FedWatch" tool shows that traders have reduced the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December to just 29.8%. Even more harshly, several Federal Reserve officials have recently come out to pour cold water on this, citing inflation risks and financial stability, clearly trying to cool the market's rate cut fantasies.

There is a detail worth noting here: both the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index and new orders index unexpectedly fell. Among a bunch of seemingly good data, these two indicators seem to be quietly warning that the recovery of the US economy may not be that stable.

So what is the current situation? The U.S. stock market is celebrating due to strong corporate earnings expectations, while the cryptocurrency market is plunging because the interest rate cut expectations have collapsed. Both sides of the logic are correct, but the directions are completely opposite.

In simple terms, this data, which is nearly two months late, is not the main focus. Smart money has long been paying attention to the next two key milestones: the inflation data in November and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in December. These two events are the real battles that will determine how the market will move at the end of the year.

Still tangled up in the September US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP)? Then you might have already fallen behind a few beats. The market always looks to the future, not the past.