The interest rate cut drama in December is basically a foregone conclusion.

The answer given by the market is very straightforward – 86% of people are betting on a 25 basis point move. This number is right there, what other surprises can you expect?

Interestingly, the Bank of Japan across the ocean is considering raising interest rates. One is easing monetary policy while the other is tightening, which is quite a combination.

If Japan really raises interest rates, the triple blow of capital, interest rates, and sentiment will come together. Bitcoin is already not strong technically, and if liquidity is further withdrawn? The drop could be quite severe.

A few key dates to remember: On the 18th-19th, the Bank of Japan will hold a meeting, which is the most critical point. In the middle of the month, the Federal Reserve will announce its decision. In January next year, Japan is very likely to implement a second round of interest rate hikes - the probability is not small.

In short, if we get through this month's turmoil, the situation will be much clearer.

Newbies stare at the candlestick charts in a panic, while veterans focus on where the money flows. Every major drop is just a way to gather ammunition, right? The real question is never whether it rises or falls, but whether you can hold on until the next real surge starts.