#美SEC推动加密创新监管 The rumors about the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December are stirring market nerves. According to the latest predictions, the probability of a rate hike this month has risen to 80%, and is even more likely to reach 90% in January next year. Behind this number is a global carry trade market worth $19 trillion—once the policy is implemented, the return of funds may trigger a chain reaction.

History always reminds us at critical moments. On Christmas Eve 2022, the Bank of Japan suddenly adjusted its yield curve control strategy, during a time of holiday liquidity exhaustion, causing global asset prices to plummet in an instant. Now the timing is strikingly similar: approaching the Christmas holiday on December 19, with market trading volume already shrinking, the impact of policy changes could be magnified several times.

In a multi-year environment of ultra-low interest rates, the yen has become a source of cheap funds. A large amount of borrowing has flowed into high-yield assets such as U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies. Once interest rate hikes begin, these funds will accelerate their withdrawal. $BTC will be the first to be affected—looking back at the last similar shock, the maximum monthly decline exceeded 20%, and ETFs experienced rare capital outflows, with over $400 million in contracts being liquidated in an instant. The market's vulnerability is higher than expected.

On the other hand, the silence of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell tonight is even more intriguing. A policy quiet period often heralds a significant shift. With Japan tightening liquidity and the United States not eager to loosen, the crypto market may face a "double liquidity trap" under this dual pressure.

$BNB 's recent performance is also not optimistic. Although the new management is in place, market confidence has not yet recovered, and on-chain related projects are generally under pressure. However, the platform and the new leadership seem to be more anxious than retail investors, and there may be stabilizing actions in the near future.

What needs to be viewed rationally is: the interest rate trap closure will indeed bring short-term pain, but it is not the endgame. After Japan's last interest rate hike in 2024, $BTC soon refreshed its historical high. The current key is to keep a close eye on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting in December and the update of the Federal Reserve's dot plot. Don't rush to heavily bet on the bottom; managing your position well is necessary to wait for the next opportunity. The market will not disappear; it is just repricing risks.