#ETH走势分析 The Fed really tore apart this time, and there was a direct argument inside.

You may have never seen such a chaotic scene at the Fed. Before the meeting even started, the high-ranking officials began to argue in public: New York Fed President Williams just said "rate cuts are quite reasonable," and Collins from Boston immediately rebutted, "there's absolutely no need." The market was left dumbfounded, with rate cut expectations jumping from 30% to 86%, and U.S. stocks began to soar that very night.

What’s even more outrageous is that this decision was made with eyes closed. The government shutdown has delayed the October employment data and the November inflation report, and Powell himself admitted it felt "like driving in a fog." However, private data is conflicting: inflation numbers won’t come down, but corporate layoffs have surged by 183%. Is the economy hot or cold? No one can say for sure.

The 12 voting members are now divided into two factions:
At least 5 hawks firmly state that "inflation has not been controlled, so we cannot lower [interest rates]"
The radical doves directly shout, "A 25 basis point cut is not enough, let's go for 50 directly."

Powell hasn't made a statement yet. The outside world is guessing that he is waiting and seeing, but the final decisive vote is in his hands. Last time, the rate cut of 25 basis points was barely passed with a 10:2 vote. This time, the divergence is greater, and with the political pressure (Trump has already publicly urged several times), the outcome is really uncertain.

Although the market has priced in an 86% probability of a rate cut, many analysts bluntly say that it's still a 50-50 gamble. What do you think? Should we remain bullish, or should we worry about expectations falling flat and leading to a direct collapse?