In the first week of December, the macro market has been a series of performances.

First, let's look at the geopolitical side. The U.S. special envoy and the Secretary of State have just met with the Ukrainian side, and a peace plan is already on the table. Now, Viktor is heading straight to Moscow with his team, and the key will depend on the Russian side's attitude. If a ceasefire can be negotiated, global risk sentiment will change immediately, and capital flows will be reshuffled.

Let's talk about economic data. The Federal Reserve is now in a "quiet period" where officials are not allowed to speak freely, letting the data do the talking. There are two key indicators this Wednesday and Thursday: ADP employment numbers and Challenger job cuts data. Due to the government shutdown, the official statistics have been missing for several months, and now the reference weight of these unofficial data has been maximized. On Friday night, there will also be the September core PCE inflation data - the core indicator for the 2% target that Powell is most focused on, and the first official inflation data after the government shutdown, which speaks for itself.

My judgment? If the employment data continues to be weak this week and the inflation data drops, the probability of a rate cut in December could jump from 87.4% to over 90%. The market is currently betting on this logic: weak employment + cooling inflation = realization of rate cut expectations.

Historical experience shows that with the easing of geopolitical tensions and supportive data, the probability of a policy shift is not low. Now is the time to test our resolve. Do you think this is a bottom-fishing opportunity, or should we wait for clearer signals?

There will be short-term fluctuations, but don't let emotions dictate your actions. The money in the market will always be divided among those who survive. You can either position yourself now to bet on a rebound or wait for confirmation signals to act—never let short-term volatility disrupt your rhythm.

Although the market is a bit dull right now, opportunities will always come. Be patient and wait for the data to materialize, and we can discuss specific operational ideas later.