Is it time to buy the dip now? First, ask yourself a question: This wave of BTC has fallen below 86000, do you understand the logic behind it?

Today's plunge is not simply a technical adjustment. I went through the data and found that the core trigger is in Japan—the probability of the central bank raising interest rates in December has surged to 76%, and in January, it has even skyrocketed to 90%. Sounds distant? In fact, it is directly related to the yen carry trade totaling between 14 trillion to 20 trillion USD.

To put it simply, this is the situation: Over the past few years, the yen interest rate has been close to zero, and global funds have been crazily borrowing yen to speculate on high-yield assets like BTC and US stocks for profit. Now that Japan is going to raise interest rates, the cost of borrowing money has skyrocketed, and this money can only be urgently liquidated—selling BTC to exchange for yen to repay debts. The result is that BTC has become the first asset to be sold off.

The market has begun to panic. Today, BTC once dropped to 85604, and mainstream cryptocurrencies generally fell over 5% in 24 hours, with long positions liquidating and directly burning 400 million USD. Looking ahead, November will be even worse: a 20% drop from the high point of 126,000 within a month, with ETF funds flowing out 3.5 billion, and the maximum liquidation scale in a single day reaching 900 million. Now the entire market is like leverage hanging in mid-air, where any slight disturbance could trigger a chain reaction.

My judgment is divided into three levels:

Don't act impulsively in the short term. Before the Bank of Japan meeting on December 18-19, the volatility will only increase, and entering the market at this time is just adding bullets to the market.

Focus on the Federal Reserve in the medium term. If there is really a rate cut in December, liquidity easing can take a breather; if not, or if hawkish signals are sent, it will be a double squeeze of Japan's rate hike and the Fed tightening, putting more pressure on BTC.

But don't panic in the long term. Last year, Japan also raised interest rates, and three months later, BTC still reached a new high. Closing carry trades is a short-term impact, not a fatal blow to change the long-term trend.

Key time points to note: December 18-19 is the Bank of Japan meeting, mid-December is the Federal Reserve's decision, and in January 2026, Japan may raise rates again. Before these key points, controlling positions is more important than anything else.

The question goes back to the beginning: Did you buy the dip? Anyway, I didn't make a move today, I'll wait for the signal to become clear before deciding. In the crypto world, it's true that the bold get to eat, but the premise is that you have to be alive to wait for the day the meat is served.