Source: Exame Original Title: Executive retracts the forecast of bitcoin at US$ 250 thousand, which is now just a 'maybe' Original Link:

BitMine Executive Retracts Bitcoin Forecast

The executive of BitMine has apparently softened his widely publicized projection that bitcoin would end the year at $250,000, now saying only that it is “perhaps” possible for the asset to recover its all-time high of $125.1 thousand, recorded in October, before the end of the year.

“I still think it is very likely that bitcoin will be above $100,000 before the end of the year — and maybe even reach a new high,” Lee said in an interview with CNBC on Wednesday, the 26th.

This appears to be the first time Lee has publicly backed away from his price target of $250,000 for bitcoin, a prediction he made in early 2024 and continued to affirm until the beginning of October.

Lee's projection was one of the most optimistic in the market. Other industry executives, such as Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, warned in October that something “very out of the ordinary” would have to happen for bitcoin to reach that level.

Still, Lee stated that some of Bitcoin's strongest days may occur before the end of 2025.

“I still think that some of these better days will happen before the end of the year,” he said, with 35 days left until the end of 2025.

Investors will need to keep guessing

Lee highlighted the trend of bitcoin to record most of its gains in just a few trading days per year, noting that the asset typically “makes its move” in only ten annual days.

The idea is widely shared among industry leaders. Bitwise CEO, Hunter Horsley, stated in February 2024 that, although investors cannot predict when these days will occur, missing the 10 best days of Bitcoin means missing out on nearly all of its historical returns.

In 2024, the 10 strongest days of Bitcoin provided a combined return of 52%, while the other 355 days generated an average return of -15%.

Bitcoin has been on a downward trend since October 10, pressured by a $19 billion sell-off in the crypto market following the announcement by the U.S. president of a 100% tariff on Chinese products.

On Wednesday, bitcoin regained the $90,000 level after six consecutive days below that threshold.

This occurred despite November being historically the strongest month for bitcoin since 2013, according to data from CoinGlass.

Mixed history in your forecasts

If Bitcoin does not reach Lee's forecast, it will not be the first time his estimates do not materialize.

In January 2018, Lee predicted that bitcoin could reach $125,000 by 2022, but the asset only reached that value three years later, in October.

On the other hand, Lee also got some predictions right.

In July 2017, he projected that, in a baseline scenario, bitcoin could reach $20,000 by 2022, and in a more optimistic scenario, it could reach $55,000 in the same period.

Bitcoin reached $20,000 in December 2020 and $55,000 in March 2021, according to data from CoinMarketCap.