#数字货币市场回调 Powell's recent statements are worth pondering. He said that how to adjust policies going forward depends on the data—economic growth is indeed stronger than expected, but the risks in employment are increasing. The current labor market is a strange phenomenon: growth is sluggish, yet the unemployment rate remains controlled, which also provides a rationale for the rate cut in September.

The issue of tariffs is starting to show side effects, and the price pressure is clearly on the rise. However, it can't be said that there is a comprehensive inflation; it's more about the structural price increases of goods. The balance sheet is nearing completion, and the Federal Reserve still has room for adjustments, with the long-term goal of just living off treasury bonds. The reserves appear to be sufficient on the books, but signs of tightening are already emerging in the money market.

The current dilemma is: policies need to shift towards a neutral direction, but moving too quickly or too slowly could both lead to problems. What’s more troublesome is that policy transmission sometimes lags, and the impact on employment and inflation takes a while to become clear. If the government really comes to a standstill, it will be even harder to make judgments with incomplete data. As for how much AI can enhance productivity? No one can say for sure right now.

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