#美联储政策与经济指标 Looking back on the past, I can't help but feel a lot of emotions. In the late 1990s, I witnessed the Fed's policy mistakes during the tech bubble. Now, history seems to be repeating itself. Recently, several Fed officials have spoken out, warning of the risk of asset price collapse. The remarks by Cook, Hamak, and others remind me of Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" rhetoric back in the day.

However, the current situation is more complex. Inflation remains high, the private credit market is expanding rapidly, hedge funds are heavily operating in the Treasury market, and AI is playing an increasingly important role in financial trading. These factors are intertwined, presenting unprecedented challenges to policymakers.

Historically, the Fed has often been slow to respond to asset bubbles. However, this time they seem to have learned their lesson and are starting to prepare in advance. Nevertheless, I worry that they may be overcorrecting. An excessive focus on financial stability risks could lead to a skewed monetary policy that overlooks the needs of the real economy.

At this critical moment, I suggest that decision-makers should balance various factors, being vigilant about asset bubble risks while not ignoring economic growth and employment. After all, history tells us that excessive tightening often brings unexpected negative consequences. Let's wait and see how this economic policy game will unfold.