#美SEC推动加密创新监管 The atmosphere in the Fed's recent meeting room was a bit off.

The 12 committee members holding voting rights can now be divided into two factions: 5 clearly oppose further rate cuts, while only 3 members still advocate for easing policies. If a vote were to take place, it could result in a split of 7 to 5. If this scenario becomes reality, the Fed's policy signals would be completely thrown into disarray.

Why is it said to be chaotic? Because what the market fears most is that the central bank itself hasn't made up its mind. Al-Hussein, a fixed income investment manager at Threadneedle, pointed out directly: such a close voting ratio will leave the interest rate market in a daze. Treasury yields will fluctuate wildly, the dollar exchange rate will be erratic, and risk assets will ride the roller coaster. Analysts at BNY Mellon added another layer — the policy direction for 2026 is no longer solely based on economic data; political games and interest trade-offs will come into play, making everything more complex.

The root of the divergence is actually quite understandable. Inflation is more stubborn than expected; some committee members believe that interest rates cannot be easily lowered and that prices must be kept in check. However, on the other hand, economic growth is slowing down, and some are worried that prolonged tightening policies will drag the economy down. The data is conflicting, and the committee members naturally cannot come to a conclusion.

What does this mean for investors? Every upcoming Fed meeting, every committee member's public speech, media interview, or even Twitter post could be scrutinized by the market with a magnifying glass. Volatility will become the norm, and uncertainty will persist. If your position is still quite aggressive, it may be time to adjust your defensive strategy. After all, when even the Fed itself is uncertain about the direction, the market won't give you much time to react.

Thank you all for your attention, and welcome to discuss your views on this wave of policy games.