Is XRP expected to double in three years? What do on-chain data and regulatory changes say?

Question

Recently, there has been a lot of discussion about XRP, so I thought I'd整理一下核心逻辑.

Catalyst Accumulation

The regulatory wind has changed. The new SEC chairman is pro-crypto, which is in stark contrast to the previous administration's strict stance. In particular, the cancellation of the SAB 121 rule (which previously restricted financial institutions from providing crypto custody services) is seen as a major benefit for institutional involvement.

The Ripple ecosystem is expanding. Ripple recently launched its own stablecoin RLUSD. Although it has not yet significantly increased XRP trading volume, theoretically, every transaction of the stablecoin requires XRP to pay transaction fees.

The Spot XRP ETF is Coming. The SEC is expected to make decisions on 6 spot XRP ETFs in mid to late October, with another one in November. Looking at the industry consensus, the approval probability is very high. Reference the Bitcoin spot ETF which was approved last January, BTC rose by 165% afterwards, and XRP has similar potential.

Digital Looks Like This

Analyst Kendrick from Standard Chartered has set a target of $12.50 for 2028, which represents a 325% increase compared to the current price of $2.95. However, considering the slowdown in the overall cryptocurrency market (Morningstar predicts an average annual growth rate of 8.4% over the next 9 years, much lower than the 60% of the past 3 years), a more conservative estimate is that XRP will double in three years to $5.90.

In other words, the annualized increase is approximately 26%.

Risks Must Be Addressed

In the past year, XRP has dropped from its historical high twice, with one decline of 45%. This thing is highly volatile, so those who are timid should stay away. Moreover, although Ripple has hundreds of clients, very few actually use XRP—no one wants to use a highly volatile coin for cross-border payments; stablecoins are much more appealing.

So whether RLUSD can truly drive the demand for XRP is still an unknown.

Simple Summary

If the ETF is smoothly approved and regulation remains friendly, XRP indeed has a story to tell. But this is betting on regulation and market sentiment, not a real improvement in fundamentals. Think carefully before making a decision about whether you can withstand such volatility.