# Palladium's 2025 Outlook: What's Next After Years of Decline?

Palladium has been under pressure since its US$3,002/oz peak in February 2022. The metal spent most of 2024 trading sideways between US$900–US$1,100, with a brief spike to US$1,200 in October amid US sanctions threats on Russian supplies.

Here's the catch: 80% of palladium demand comes from auto catalytic converters, but the sector is facing headwinds. While overall car sales are projected to rise 1.7% to 89.6M units in 2025, electric vehicles—which don't need palladium—are eating into that share. EV penetration is expected to reach 16.7% in 2025 (up from 13.2% in 2024), but growth is slowing due to charging infrastructure concerns and market saturation.

**Supply vs. Demand Reality:**
The World Platinum Investment Council forecasts a palladium surplus of 897,000 oz by 2025, driven by a 1.2M oz jump in recycling supply plus ramped-up Russian and South African mine output. Auto demand, meanwhile, is seen growing only "modestly" to 8.5M oz—still below pre-COVID peaks.

**2025 Price Forecast:**
CPM Group's Jeffrey Christian expects palladium to stay rangebound at US$900–US$1,000, with a downward bias. Heraeus Precious Metals paints a wider range of US$800–US$1,200. The consensus: weak fundamentals ahead.

**Wildcard:** Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico could gut North American auto demand, while rolling back EV subsidies might actually prop up demand for combustion engines—ironically bullish for palladium.