The Copper Squeeze Is On—And It's About to Get Tighter

Here’s the deal: Global copper production hit 23 million metric tons in 2024, but that’s not the headline. The real story? We’re heading toward a supply crunch that’ll make energy transition projects sweat bullets.

Chile still owns the copper game with 5.3 million MT (23% of global output), but here’s where it gets spicy—the DRC jumped to second place with 3.3 million MT, up from 2.93 million MT in 2023. That’s not a slow burn, that’s acceleration. Ivanhoe’s Kamoa-Kakula mine in Congo ramped up to 437,000 MT in 2024 and is guiding for 520-580,000 MT in 2025. Meanwhile, Peru slipped from 2.6 million MT due to maintenance headwinds at Freeport McMoRan’s Cerro Verde.

The kicker? China dominates refining (12 million MT of refined copper = 44% of global supply), but its mine production is mediocre—only 1.8 million MT and trending downward since 2021. The US, Indonesia, and Russia round out the top six, each hovering around 1 million MT.

Why you should care: Aging mines without replacement pipeline + surging demand from EVs and grid infrastructure = copper prices broke $5/lb in May 2024 for the first time ever. Analysts expect supply deficits in the coming years, which spells tailwinds for prices and fat margins for producers. Chile’s already expecting output to hit 6 million MT in 2025 as new mines ramp.

The electrification boom needs copper like data centers need GPUs—it’s not negotiable. And the supply side? Still holding back. That’s the trade.