# S&P 500 Just Broke a 6-Month Streak—What's Really Happening?

The broad market hit a wall. After charging above its 50-day moving average for 198 consecutive days (the longest run since 2007), the S&P 500 finally dipped below it on Nov. 20. That's the fifth-longest streak since 1950, but here's the twist: historically, this **isn't** a crash signal.

Let's look at the numbers. The index peaked at 6,890.89 on Oct. 28, then pulled back 5.1%. Sounds scary on the surface, but when you check the three similar streaks since 2007, the market gained an average of 8% in the following six months after the streak ended. Only exception? The 2007 streak that preceded the financial crisis—but that peaked in October 2007, months after the streak actually broke.

**But wait—there's a red flag.** The Shiller P/E ratio (CAPE) is now at its second-highest level ever, second only to the dot-com bubble peak. That's not a crash timer either, but combined with weak macro signals—flatlining job growth, soft consumer spending, rising auto loan defaults—it's telling us volatility is here to stay.

The real takeaway? This moving-average breakdown is **noise, not signal**. However, expensive valuations + economic uncertainty = rough waters ahead. Keep your seat belt on.